GC Biopharma (006280.KS) is expected to post third-quarter operating profit above market estimates, driven by sales growth in flu vaccines and its blood-derived product Alyglo, according to a brokerage report. Revenue, however, is likely to fall from a year earlier because of a high base created by sales of the COVID-19 treatment Paxlovid.
Daol Investment & Securities (030210.KS) maintained its buy rating and 200,000 won target price on GC Biopharma in a report on the 20th. The brokerage projected third-quarter consolidated revenue of 522.3 billion won and operating profit of 40.9 billion won, down 14.3% and up 40% from a year earlier, respectively. That revenue figure is 12.2% below the consensus estimate of 594.8 billion won, while the operating profit forecast is 19.1% above the consensus of 34.4 billion won.
The brokerage attributed the improvement in operating profit mainly to higher sales of flu vaccines and Alyglo. Daol forecast that domestic vaccine revenue would climb 46% year-on-year, helped by flu vaccine bulk substance sales deferred from the second quarter and shipments of finished products. Alyglo sales, supported by rising prescriptions and shipments in the U.S. market, are expected to grow 62% over the same period.
Daol also expects a narrower loss at subsidiary ABO Plasma, formerly ABO Holdings, as one-off costs disappear and management efficiency improves, along with gains from stronger sales of high-margin products. Revenue, by contrast, is seen falling short of market expectations because Paxlovid sales temporarily surged in the third quarter of last year on stockpiling demand from pharmacies.
In the fourth quarter, profitability is expected to deteriorate despite concentrated shipments of chickenpox vaccine, as some volumes of the Hunter syndrome treatment Hunterase were booked in the third quarter and costs tied to incentives from the Curevo sale are disbursed. Daol accordingly forecast full-year revenue of 1.9 trillion won, down 4.6% from a year earlier, and operating profit of 70.3 billion won, up 1.6%.
The brokerage also pointed to the potential for an improved financial structure following the Curevo sale. GC Biopharma is expected to post a sharp temporary increase in net profit as it recognizes about 300 billion won in proceeds from the sale as non-operating income in the third quarter. The funds will be used to build a dedicated production line for 20% high-concentration subcutaneous immunoglobulin (SCIG) at its Ochang plant. Daol said it expects the company to expand its product lineup using Alyglo's existing U.S. sales network and to improve medium- to long-term profitability through high-yield processes and premium pricing.
