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America’s already frozen housing market could be headed for an even deeper chill next year — with Goldman Sachs warning that stubbornly high mortgage rates will keep buyers sidelined and homeowners trapped in their properties.
The Wall Street giant predicts just 3.9 million existing homes will change hands in 2027, slightly fewer than this year and a staggering 26% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019, according to a MarketWatch report published Tuesday.
The grim outlook comes as mortgage rates have climbed back above 7%, further squeezing would-be buyers already struggling with sky-high home prices.
“In 2027, we expect the headwind from affordability to increasingly dominate, weighing further on activity,” Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote in a note to clients Monday.
At the heart of the problem is a growing divide between homeowners who secured rock-bottom mortgage rates during the pandemic — and even earlier — and prospective buyers now facing dramatically higher borrowing costs.
More than 95% of existing mortgage borrowers have interest rates below current market levels, while 65% have rates at least 2 percentage points lower, according to Goldman Sachs.
That means millions of Americans have little financial incentive to sell their homes, since moving would likely mean trading an affordable mortgage for a significantly more expensive one.
The phenomenon, known as the mortgage-rate lock-in effect, has helped keep the housing market in a deep freeze even as demand from prospective buyers remains constrained by affordability challenges.
Mortgage rates have surged nearly 1.5 percentage points since their February lows, making the prospect of moving even less appealing.
And while the number of homes available for sale has improved, inventory remains historically tight, according to Goldman Sachs.
There are some bright spots, including favorable demographic trends and expectations that wage growth will outpace inflation. But those positives may not be enough to revive the market.
Surveys show Americans’ intentions to purchase homes have fallen sharply in recent months, while reduced immigration is expected to weigh on household formation and housing demand.
Goldman Sachs isn’t alone in its gloomy assessment.
The Mortgage Bankers Association recently forecast that total single-family mortgage lending will decline 5% in 2027 to just under $2 trillion, down from an estimated $2.1 trillion this year.
The industry group also expects new-home construction to slow, while national home-price growth decelerates next year before gradually picking up again in 2028.
“We expect declining levels of new construction for both single-family and multifamily homes over the forecast period,” MBA deputy chief economist Joel Kan said in a statement.
The bleak outlook is already taking a toll on housing-related investments.
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has fallen roughly 9% this year, while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF has plunged about 24%, according to MarketWatch.
For Americans hoping the housing market would finally thaw in 2027, Wall Street’s latest forecast suggests the wait could stretch even longer.