The number of small boat crossings to Britain risks surging if France votes the far right into power next year, a possibility that is growing probable following riots across the country.
Mass protests that degenerated into riots in some cities could help to propel Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, into power in April and May’s presidential elections as the authority of Emmanuel Macron’s government collapses.
Le Pen was already leading in the polls but is now seeking to use the crisis to consolidate her front-runner position.
If that happens, policing of small boat crossings to the UK could be in the crosshairs of a new government intent on proving its hardline anti-immigration credentials. France plays a key role in deterring asylum seekers from boarding vessels heading to England across the Channel.
Why crossings could surge in the short term
Were the RN to win the election, there could be an immediate surge in the number of people making the crossing to Britain, according to experts.
“There could be an initial acceleration as migrants and people-smuggling networks respond to fears of tougher enforcement, said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at political risk research firm, Eurasia Group.
“The more important question is what happens to operational co-operation between the two countries. If that deteriorates, the unintended consequence of a tougher French government could actually be more crossings, not fewer.
“The central paradox is that a Le Pen presidency could make the politics of immigration much tougher while making the practical management of migration across the Channel considerably harder.”
Dan Sohege, director of human rights advocacy group Stand for All, said crossings to the UK could increase because a Le Pen government would be less likely to prevent boat launches from France.
The RN has promised to reduce the number of migrants in France, so it would not be in her political interests to actively work to bring asylum seekers back, he said.
“The basis for Le Pen’s policies are, as with Reform in the UK, a reduction in immigration in general and especially of people seeking asylum,” he says. “This would not be achieved by agreeing to take back people who have already crossed the Channel, an agreement which is unlikely to be popular with her supporters.”
There could be an uptick in police operations in northern France that drives an early increase in crossings, according to Jonathan Darling, a professor in human geography at Durham University. This would play into the wider Le Pen narrative around law and order.
“I think you might see an initial increase of people [crossing] because of kind of fear and concerns over what a Le Pen government might mean,” he said.
Could tougher law and order reduce crossings?
Some experts point out that Le Pen’s policies could actually drive a reduction in crossings from France in the longer term, although migrants are likely to reach Britain via other, more treacherous routes.
“You also might then see a decrease with increased policing,” said Darling, “that would mean people making longer and more dangerous journeys because they’re trying to avoid increased police presence at some of the major routes.”
Earlier this year, Le Pen’s deputy pledged to return asylum seekers arriving in small boats to France, raising hopes of reducing crossings. Jordan Bardella, who would be prime minister if Le Pen became president, signed a memorandum of understanding with Reform UK, which promised that migrants intercepted in the Channel would be sent back to France.
However, the RN and experts have already poured cold water on such a plan. Firstly, this would only come into effect if Le Pen were president of France and Nigel Farage prime minister of the UK. This looks unlikely, with the election two years away and Reform’s popularity dropping beneath that of both Labour and the Tories in recent weeks, following a series of scandals.
Furthermore, a source close to Le Pen has since raised doubts over the plan, telling Politico: “Why send them back if they’re not even French?”
Douglas Webber, emeritus professor of political science at the international business school INSEAD, based near Paris, said any promise RN had made to the UK was “worthless”.
“This issue will be a very long way down the list of priorities of a new far-right government in France,” he said.
Sohenge agreed that if Le Pen came into power, the party would turn its back on that pledge in order to look tough on migration.
When Le Pen ran for president in 2022 and was defeated by Macron, she vowed to process all asylum applications abroad, and to systematically remove undocumented migrants.
That would not lead to a reduction in the number of asylum seekers coming to the UK, said Sohege, but in the longer term could lead to a change in the routes used to travel to the UK. Instead of France, Sohege believes migrants may travel from Belgium or attempt to enter the UK using lorries from Spain. “That shift could create an impression of a reduction, but the reality would be different, as the routes would just be less noticeable,” he said.
Both Webber and Darling said any change in the number of small boat crossings to the UK would be more dependent on factors such as the number of refugees fleeing crisis regions towards Europe and how effectively the Schengen area member states control their borders.
Why the riots are helping Le Pen
Le Pen’s chances are looking stronger after the recent protests descended into rioting in cities including Paris, Marseille and Limoge, with groups of masked individuals smashing up local businesses and looting goods.
Macron’s government struggled to regain control of the situation and Le Pen has blamed the government and its immigration policies for the riots. On Sunday night, Le Pen said “we are paying for decades of giving in, decades of anarchic immigration”.
Salomé Ietter, a researcher at the University of Glasgow and co-convenor of the French politics specialist group of the Political Studies Association, said: “Linking Saturday’s protests to ‘decades of anarchic immigration’ is typical fearmongering on both the French right and far right, and authorities themselves haven’t linked the protests to immigration.”
Ietter described recent student protests as the latest iteration of a recurring social movement that has appeared in opposition to Macron’s policies, “demanding protection of public services, more funding towards education, and relief for rising cost of living”. She said opposition to his policies had seen gains for the far right and the left.
Rahman said the unrest in France was clearly playing into Le Pen’s hands. “The more the election becomes a referendum on public order, immigration and the authority of the state, the more favourable the political terrain becomes for the National Rally.”
No opinion polls have been conducted since the protests, though Le Pen has been ahead since February. And it may not be long until Britain is grappling with the very real consequences of a far-right French government.