South Korea's per capita gross domestic product will top $40,000 for the first time this year on the back of a semiconductor supercycle and then climb close to $50,000 next year, according to International Monetary Fund projections.
Per capita GDP will reach $43,511 this year, crossing the $40,000 mark for the first time, before jumping to $49,276 next year, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook statistical database released on the 13th. The figure is projected to reach $52,100 in 2028, surpassing $50,000.
Korea's per capita GDP had risen steadily to $35,363 in 2018 before falling for two consecutive years amid the pandemic, dropping to $33,653 in 2020. It briefly rebounded to $37,548 in 2021 as economic activity resumed after the COVID-19 pandemic, aided by large-scale stimulus measures and base effects, but slipped to $34,888 the following year on rising prices and interest rate increases. It then hovered around $36,000 before the projected sharp rebound starting this year, as strong exports driven by the chip boom feed through to the figures.
A further decline in the average won-dollar exchange rate this year could push per capita GDP even higher. When the IMF issued its earlier projection in April, the won was trading in the 1,460 range against the dollar, and Korea's per capita GDP was then estimated at $39,165. The rate has since fallen to the mid-1,300 range, and a further decline by year-end could lift this year's figure above the October estimate.
Korea's global ranking is also expected to improve. As of last year, Korea ranked 10th in per capita GDP among countries with populations of more than 20 million, trailing Spain. This year, however, Korea is projected to overtake Spain and rise to ninth, entering the top 10. Countries ahead of Korea include the United States at about $95,212, Australia at about $75,172, Germany at about $65,699, the United Kingdom at $61,108, Canada at about $60,105, France at about $51,448, Italy at about $45,886 and Taiwan at $43,950. Japan is projected at about $35,000.
Korea is expected to compete closely with Taiwan, which is similarly dependent on the semiconductor industry. Taiwan will stay ahead of Korea this year, before Korea overtakes Taiwan's $47,414 next year and then falls back behind by a narrow margin in 2030. In 2031, Korea is projected at $59,919 and Taiwan at $60,048, meaning Taiwan would reach the $60,000 threshold first.