Last year, the Big Ten was the unquestioned best conference in the sport, both going into the tournament and in tournament performance. There were five teams in the top four seed lines, and nine teams in the top 36 overall seeds, and they backed it up with Sweet Sixteens, Final Fours, and Championships. This year when looking for the best conference in the country it is not as cut and dry.
The Big Ten is lacking in the depth of firepower at the top, as the Big 12 and SEC make up nine of the top thirteen teams in preseason KenPom, but the depth of the Big Ten is better this year. None of the teams who made the tournament last year should be expected to fall out of the tournament, and of the teams that missed, USC, Minnesota, Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland all look like they should be better than they were last year.
At the end of the day though, injuries will happen and only one team can win each game, so even with the expanded tournament you can expect somewhere between ten and thirteen teams maximum. The teams listed here I would expect to make the tournament if they can stay healthy.
12. Indiana
Projected Starting Lineup
Markus Burton, Senior, 18.5 ppg/2.8 rpg/3.6 apg/1.6 spg at Notre Dame
Last year, Indiana ran its entire offense through transfer guard Lamar Wilkerson, who finished second in the Big Ten in points per game at 20.9. With Wilkerson out of eligibility, expect Markus Burton to take over that role in Darian DeVries offense and put up similar gaudy numbers. Burton is undersized at 6-foot-0, but he is quick and highly skilled, finding angles to get lay ups around big men in the paint, and shooting threes of the pull up or the step back. His biggest issue has been durability, suffering a broken ankle last year that ended his season after just ten games, and a strained knee as a sophomore that kept him out just under a month. He is also much more of a scorer than a distributor.
Darren Harris, Junior, 3.3 ppg/0.8 rpg/0.4 apg at Duke
Harris is a former top-40 recruit who got buried behind the embarrassment of riches that Scheyer recruits to Duke. He came into college known as a sniper from distance, and that is where most of his shots has come from, but it has not translated to efficiency in spotty minutes so far in his career, shooting just 30.8% over the past two years. When players leave Duke for more minutes, it can be hit or miss if they just need a chance to shine or if they were just an overhyped prospect. If he cannot find his shot or play sufficient defense, Villanova transfer Bryce Lindsay could fill this starting spot instead.
Jaeden Mustaf, Junior, 10.4 ppg/4.3 rpg/2.4 apg at Georgia Tech
If you are noticing a pattern, Mustaf makes three of three ACC transfers in the back court. Last year, it was a lot more mid major transfers, this year it is high majors who either did not play much or played on bad teams. Mustaf is a typical glue guy, providing athleticism and size on the wing, some secondary scoring and playmaking, and solid rebounding.
Aidan Sherrell, Junior, 11.1 ppg/6.2 rpg/1.1 apg/2.2 bpg at Alabama
At Alabama, Sherrell played a complimentary role spacing the floor, rolling for dunks, and blocking shots. Indiana is paying him to expand his game beyond that. The athleticism and skill are there to be an NBA player, but he will need to be able to expand his game with the ball in his hands and become a more ferocious rebounder.
Samet Yigitoglou, Junior, 10.7 ppg/7.9 rpg/1.6 apg/1.3 bpg at SMU
Yigitoglou gives Indiana four ACC transfers in their starting lineup, as well as a second 7-footer patrolling the paint. Samet is more of a traditional big man than Sherrell, playing with his back to the basket and living on the offensive glass. Sherrell will need to be able to guard on the perimeter to make this partnership work, as the Turkish giant will not be able to keep up with power forwards or centers who can put the ball on the floor from the perimeter.
Why Illinois Beats Them
A lack of continuity, with just one or two returning bench players (depending on court decisions) is the biggesst concern for Indiana. There are clear weak spots for Illinois to attack defensively as well, by looking to post up small guards, in particular Burton, and pull the big men away from the paint with the shooting Balkans.
Why They Beat Illinois
Burton goes off for thirty, and Sherrell shuts down Mirkovic with his size and mobility.
X Factor
Indiana spent a lot of money to go get Markus Burton and Aidan Sherrell. Both are likely amongst the ten most expensive players in the Big Ten. If they are going to exceed expectations, the Hoosiers will need both of them to play like top ten players in the conference. Burton will score, but if he gets injured again Indiana does not have another player on the roster capable of taking on the lead ballhandling and scoring duties, and he needs to prove he is a winning player and not just a scorer. If Sherrell is the same player he was at Alabama, he will not be enough of a difference maker to lift Indiana above what they were last year.
Bottom Line
Indiana looks better than they were last year by having two functional Big Ten big men, instead of none. However, they can be better and still finish lower in the conference standings. If both Sherrell and Burton hit, it would not be out of the question for them to push for top five in the conference. If they do not, or if there are injury problems, they could very easily miss the tournament again and put DeVries firmly on the hot seat in Bloomington after just two seasons.
11. Iowa
Projected Starting Lineup
Kael Combs, Senior, 6.1 ppg/2.4 rpg/2.4 apg
With Bennett Stirtz off to the Oklahoma City Thunder, his backcourt partner last year has very big shoes to fill. Of course, Iowa will rely on other positions picking up the slack, but Combs will still be expected to run the show. He has demonstrated good vision and is crafty scoring when he needs to, but he is not very aggressive hunting his own shot, and is not an above average shooter from deep.
Tate Sage, Sophomore, 6.1 ppg/2.1 rpg/0.7 apg
Sage showed promise as a freshman, culminating with his best performance of the year (19 points on 6-10 shooting with eight rebounds and three assists) in the Sweet 16 to knock off rival Nebraska. Expectations are that he will take on a lot of the scoring burden that Stirtz left behind, but that is a big jump, especially without Stirtz’s gravity to open up opportunities for him. At 6-foot-7 with a smooth shot, he will be able to shoot over or post up smaller guards in a lot of match ups.
Cooper Koch, Junior, 7.8 ppg/3.1 rpg/1.1 apg
Koch is typically seen as a stretch four, but Iowa looks to be sliding a lot of players up a position to get more positional size on the court. He was a 40% three-point shooter last year, but Ben McCollum will ask for more off the dribble from him this year. Defending quicker threes is a question Koch will need to answer this year.
Cam Manyawu, Senior, 6.6 ppg/4.6 rpg/1.1 apg
Their starting center is also sliding up a spot this year. Defensively, he is strong and quick enough to handle the four, and is less likely to have the problem he faced in the elite eight of a tall center like Tomislav Ivisic burying him with hook shots he does not have the height to contest at just 6-foot-9. The question comes on offense, if there is enough spacing to accommodate non-shooters at the center and power forward position.
Andrew McKeever, Senior, 8.2 ppg/9.2 rpg/1.8 apg at Saint Mary’s
Getting bullied down low will not be an issue anymore, as McCollum brought in the 7-foot-3 285 pound McKeever. Defensively, he is a rim deterrent even if his actual shot blocking numbers have been pretty low, at just 0.8 per game. Offensively, he cannot shoot from further away from hook shot range, but he does display some intriguing passing chops that I expect McCollum to explore. If they do not have a point guard who can manipulate the defense, expect a lot of McKeever in the high post with an array of cuts around him to get lay ups and open threes. I’d expect a double-double with 2.5-3 assists per game in McCollum’s system.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Superior talent wins out. Instead of destroying them in the post as he did last year, Tomislav pulls McKeever away from the basket and makes pick and pop threes to separate from Iowa. Stojakovic proves too quick for Iowa’s wings to guard.
Why They Beat Illinois
It feels like McCollum’s offseason was built around building a team that can match up with the Illinois team that knocked them out. They do as well as anyone can defensively against Illinois’ high-powered offense, and Koch and Sage sink enough threes to escape with a victory.
X Factor
The chicken or the egg: did Bennett Stirtz thrive because Ben McCollum made him, or has McCollum been so successful at Drake and Iowa because he had a superstar? If it is the former, then you bet on McCollum molding Tate Sage or Andrew McKeever into a superstar. If it is the latter, Iowa could have a tough time being efficient offensively without Stirtz pulling all the strings. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Expect internal improvement from some of their returnees, but Stirtz was the real deal and will be difficult to replace.
Bottom Line
Ben McCollum deserves credit for their postseason run; it was not a fluke. They play a unique style that can be difficult for opponents to prepare for, and he had a great gameplan to get past Florida and Nebraska. However, I think some people are getting carried away with it and forgetting that Iowa finished .500 in the Big Ten last year. Internal improvement plus McKeever is not enough to offset the losses of Stirtz and Alvaro Folguieras and I expect them to take a small step back. They will still find a way into the tournament though and will be the kind of matchup higher seeds do not want to see across from them.
10. Maryland
Projected Starting Lineup
DJ Wagner, Senior, 7.4 ppg/1.6 rpg/2.4 apg at Arkansas
DJ Wagner is the son of Dajuan Wagner, a memorably awesome college basketball player and the first of many one-and-done point guards Calipari had at Memphis, Kentucky and Arkansas. Once expected to be the next great Calipari point guard as a top 10 recruit, DJ Wagner has struggled to live up to the hype. He followed Calipari to Arkansas and was their starting point guard as a sophomore but found himself behind the incredible Darius Acuff last year. Buzz Williams is not John Calipari, but he has had some success with very good point guards himself (Wade Taylor IV at Texas A&M most recently). If he can unlock the potential in Wagner, the ceiling for Maryland increases drastically.
Andre Mills, Sophomore, 12.2 ppg/4.1 rpg/1.6 apg
Mills was the less heralded freshman in the rotation last year, as 5-star Darius Adams was supposed to lead the way for the Terps. However, Mills displayed much better shot making ability and was a lone bright spot in a lost season for Maryland, while Adams is starting fresh at NC State. A big lefty combo guard, his game reminds me a lot of Kendrick Nunn. He dropped 30 on the Illini last year and almost carried Maryland to an embarrassing upset of the Illini.
Baba Oladotun, Freshman, 6-foot-10 No. 9 Overall Recruit
Oladotun grew up just outside of College Park, Maryland, and is going to have a chance to star for his local school, likely just for one year before he heads off to the NBA. Oladotun was the top player in the 2027 class before reclassifying to 2026. His playing style is clearly modeled after the most famous player with the same body type, Kevin Durant. He can make unblockable fadeaways in the midrange, shoot from NBA range, put the ball on the floor and be problematic with his length defensively. His biggest problem at this point in his career is he has the strength of a car dealership blow-up man and if he struggles it will be because Big Ten physicality throws him off his game.
Pharrel Payne, Super Senior, 17.5 ppg/7.2 rpg/1.4 apg/1.1 bpg
Payne was off to a spectacular start over his first ten games last season before having an awkward fall after a dunk that sidelined him for the rest of the season with a hip injury. Payne was Maryland’s only serviceable big man on the roster, and their season cratered without him. This year, they have brought him some help in the trenches, and if he can pick up where he left off Maryland should be a dominant interior team. Payne is a rim running post up threat, and one of the most tenacious offensive rebounders in the country.
Tomislav Buljan, Sophomore, 13.1 ppg/10.3 rpg/1.5 apg at New Mexico
Bringing in the second best Tomislav in the conference gives Buzz Williams a bruising 1-2 punch in the paint. Buljan is not a shot blocker at 6-foot-9 but can move pretty well at his size. He only made eight three-pointers last year, but even if he does not improve that significantly, he has enough dribbling and passing ability to play on the perimeter some and share the court with Payne. His most impressive skill is he has great hands and feet in the pick and roll, being able to catch it on the move and change direction smoothly.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Buzz Williams won ugly at his previous stop in Texas A&M, by bludgeoning teams on the offensive glass. It looks like Buzz is getting back to that this year with Payne and Buljan, but Illinois is one of the few teams in the country that can negate the shot quantity advantage that Maryland strives for. Win the battle on the glass, and Illinois’ talent will win out.
Why They Beat Illinois
Basically, the inverse of the section above. Maryland is one of the only teams in the country that could hold Illinois’ offensive rebounding in check. With more or less equal possessions in the game, Mills, Wagner and Oladotun have enough tough shot making talent to steal a win.
X Factor
It is going to become a trend in upcoming previews, but it’s always the high upside freshman. Oladotun can swing Maryland’s ceiling more than any other player. If he plays like someone ready to go to the NBA as a top five pick, Maryland could be a top five team in the conference. If he looks like a project who possibly could have used one more year of high school, Maryland might lack quality size and shot making on the wing to handle the top half of the conference.
Bottom Line
This looks like a Buzz Williams team again, and when he has teams that fit his identity, he usually makes the tournament. They are not the deepest team, but if they can stay healthy, I would expect a big bounce back and a fairly comfortable tournament berth from the Terps.
9. Ohio State
Projected Starting Lineup
Justin Pippen, Junior, 14.2 ppg/3.9 rpg/4.6 apg/1.9 spg at California
After a quiet freshman season at Michigan, Justin Pippen appeared to be another overrated legacy baby, as the son of Scottie Pippen and growing up playing with the sons of stars at Sierra Canyon (Bronny James’ alma mater). However, he found his footing as the starting point guard at Cal last year. He does not have his father’s size at just 6-foot-4, but some of the passing vision and defensive instincts to jump passing lanes are similar. He is an inefficient shooter but gets to the foul line frequently to make up for it.
John Mobley Jr., Junior, 15.7 ppg/2.4 rpg/2.8 apg
With Bruce Thornton gone, expect Mobley to take a leap as one of the leading scorers in the Big Ten this year. He makes threes from anywhere inside the halfcourt line at over a 40% clip and can attack off the bounce if you try to crowd him off the line. Pippen was a great pick up to play next to him, as Pippen can take the tougher defensive assignment and handle the responsibility of getting other players involved, as Mobley’s modus operandi is score first, second and third.
Anthony Thompson, Freshman, 6-Foot-8 No. 8 Overall Recruit
Thompson is a long, lefty with a pure shooting stroke from a quick, high release that allows him to shoot over contests. His length and athleticism give him high upside as a defensive weapon, but like most freshmen attention to detail and intensity will be the concern on that end. He is projected as a top 10 pick in next year’s draft.
Amare Bynum, Sophomore, 9.7 ppg/4.9 rpg/1.1 apg
Bynum showed a lot of promise as a freshman and should be in for a sophomore break out as the third star for Ohio State, along with Mobley and Thompson. He is an athletic, lefty power forward who can shoot from distance, but really makes his money attacking the rim off the dribble or off cuts and finishing with authority. He has a signature power spin to his left that he likes to use on his drives.
Josh Ojianwuna, Super Senior, 7.4 ppg/6.4 rpg/0.6 apg at Baylor in 2024-25
Ojianwuna transferred to Ohio State last year and spent the year rehabbing a torn ACL. He is listed at 6-foot-10 but is built like a defensive end. Offensively, he is able to post a gaudy 77% field goal percentage by almost refusing to shoot the ball unless he is putting his hand in the basket. He does not pose much of a post-up option, finding his opportunities on lobs and putbacks. He figures to share the position with Kentucky transfer Andrija Jelavic, a more finesse big option, and Ivan Njegovan, a lumbering 7-foot-2 giant.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Mobley will get his, but Ohio State’s defense outside of Bynum will provide little resistance to a high-powered Illinois offense.
Why They Beat Illinois
Awkward timing, as they play an early January game in Champaign which is always a time to worry about upsets without the energy of the student section in the house. Mobley and Thompson are both tough match ups for our guards in what should be a shoot out.
X Factor
The obvious answer is the one I gave in the Maryland section; how good Anthony Thompson is right away will determine their ceiling. If he is an All-Big Ten level player, Ohio State can push for a double bye in the Big Ten tournament. Even if Thompson lives up to the hype though, the center rotation worries me too much to not highlight that as well here. 1-4 in the starting lineup and on the bench, this is undoubtedly the most talented roster Kyle Diebler has fielded in Columbus. It can be hard to keep up in the Big Ten if your center play is below serviceable, which is a real risk here.
Bottom Line
The talent is too good to miss the tournament altogether (and if that were to happen, Kyle Diebler would likely be packing his bags), but I expect some inconsistency for a group that will miss Bruce Thornton’s leadership, is relying on a freshman, and has a massive question mark in the front court. Expect them to be one of the more inconsistent squads in the Big Ten, with signature wins and head scratching losses.
8. Wisconsin
Projected Starting Lineup
Owen Foxwell, 23-year old International Recruit, 11.1 ppg/3.0 rpg/4.5 apg for Melbourne Phoenix
To replace star point guard Nick Boyd, Greg Gard went down under to find Owen Foxwell. Gard turns solid point guards into stars (Boyd went from 13 ppg at a mid-major to 20 ppg at Wisconsin), and I expect the same to happen with Foxwell. He will be one of the better pick and roll decision makers in the Big Ten, with the ability to hide behind the screen and shoot from distance, spam floaters against drop coverage, or throw lobs to the roll man.
Braedon Carrington*, Super Senior, 8.3 ppg/2.4 rpg/1.1 apg
Carrington is another player whose eligibility is in the air as he awaits a hearing on Oct. 20 to determine if he will be granted an injunction to keep playing. If he is not eligible, expect George Washington transfer Trey Autry to fill this spot. If he is, he is a solid defender and spot up shooter who made over 40% of his threes last year.
Eian Elmer, Senior, 12.7 ppg/5.9 rpg/1.1 apg/1.2 spg at Miami (Ohio)
Elmer was an efficient wing scorer and the best perimeter defender for a very good Miami team last year. He shot 50% from the field and 43% from three. I would not be surprised if Gard gives him more on-ball responsibility this year, and he plays similarly to John Blackwell last year.
Austin Rapp, Junior, 9.7 ppg/4.0 rpg/1.6 apg
Another Aussie, Rapp is a 6-foot-10 stretch four. Like Carrington, he will be asked to fit around the stars and shoot threes when they come to him, with two-thirds of his shots coming from deep last season.
Nolan Winter, Senior, 13.1 ppg/8.5 rpg/1.5 apg/1.2 bpg
Not much to say about Winter that you do not already know. He is a Wisconsin center. He plays similarly to every other center they have had there over the past 20 years, and should have a strong, borderline All-Big Ten season as a senior.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Mirkovic against Rapp is the biggest mismatch here. Mirkovic should have a field day taking Rapp off the dribble and finding shooters. After a rough year against Wisconsin, it is time to start another winning streak against the Badgers.
Why Wisconsin Beats Illinois
Owen Foxwell channels Nick Boyd and Illinois cannot figure out their pick and roll coverages to slow down Badger Dundee. The game is at the Kohl Center, which traditionally is a very tough environment, and Wisconsin can put up a lot of points in a hurry with five shooters on the floor at almost all times.
X Factor
I almost considered it a given in his blurb above, but a lot is riding on Owen Foxwell. If he cannot drive this offense adequately, Wisconsin could be much closer to the bubble than they are used to. I expect he can do the job, but you never know how an international prospect will translate. There is a scenario where he looks a bit like Mihailo Petrovic did for Illinois last year, which would be very bad news for Wisconsin.
Bottom Line
Shame on you, Big Ten media members. They have voted Wisconsin 11th in the preseason poll, meaning they will hand Greg Gard another Big Ten Coach of the Year Award when they exceed those expectations. Even eighth might be underselling the Wisconsin regular season machine, but at least it is in the top half of the conference. Other teams may spend more than the Badgers, but their system just works, until they get into the NCAA tournament.