Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: Who Wins and Why for Week 6

The Bears have made bouncing back their theme for the week. It's all you can do after being embarrassed by your biggest rival.

“That story has yet to be written," coach Ben Johnson said. "We get a chance to do that ourselves. I feel strongly about our locker room. I think we have a lot of high-quality, character guys. A lot of prideful individuals.

"So far this week they've handled it. It's all been back to business as usual."

They're in last place in the NFC North based on divisional records but at 3-2 there are only three teams in the entire NFC with better overall records.

"There's no moping around or woe is me," Johnson said. "They understand it's a long season. Everything is still out in front of us. We still have a winning record. That's a good thing.

"We have a lot to play for here going forward. This next stretch before the bye week is a big part."

It starts with trying to stop the NFL's top rusher, Bijan Robinson, and with Caleb Williams making big plays downfield in his expected return to the field.

In fact, this could be an entirely different group than went to Green Bay and seemed to quit by the fourth quarter, but that's not entirely a good thing. It could include slot cornerback Kyler Gordon and tackle Ozzy Trapilo besides Williams, but not starting defensive ends Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo or linebacker T.J. Edwards.

It's the Bears and Falcons in Atlanta with the roof closed at noon Sunday. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running game vs. Falcons run defense

Without the power punch of Kyle Monangai, the Bears' running game looked less impactful last week. They're not going to have him this week. At least D'Andre Swift is a week removed from a hip injury that had been bothering him. Atlanta's defense gave up rushing yardage in chunks last week for the first time when up against Derrick Henry and Baltimore, but have given up only 3.8 yards per rush and former Bear Gervon Dexter has actually been fairly effective at stopping the run after he struggled doing it in Chicago. No edge

Bears passing game vs. Falcons pass defense

It's hard to see how Williams would be able to play without rust and also show the kind of movement he normally flashes after he has had a hamstring injury that kept him out 3 1/2 weeks. The Bears will need plenty of support for Williams in the ground game and from his receivers. Fortunately for the Bears, Atlanta's biggest weakness has been pass defense and starting cornerbacks C.J. Henderson and A.J. Terrell Jr. are both out injured. They're 27th at stopping the pass. The last time the Bears faced a pass defense so challenged they scored 59 points. Edge to Bears

Falcons running game vs. Bears run defense

The numbers say the Bears are better at stopping the run than last year but they're still getting moved off the line too far at times. Grady Jarrett has been a force inside, but losing T.J. Edwards and both starting defensive ends can't help when Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. are bringing it in Atlanta's running game. Bijan is averaging 5.7 yards an attempt and his 580 yards is No. 1 in the NFL. Grady Jarrett's homecoming game is going to need to include penetration and breaking up the wide zone schemes Atlanta loves to run with the Robinsons. Edge to Falcons

Falcons passing game vs. Bears pass defense

Last week was the first time since the opener that the Bears had massive breakdowns in the back end and if they get Kyler Gordon back they could have an effective group, although it's going to be difficult for the entire defense to focus on stopping the pass when Atlanta has run it the second most times, trailing only the Bears. Trying to get a pass rush going with backups will be difficult but the Bears could turn loose Austin Booker after Michael Penix. Facing a left-handed quarterback can be a change that causes problems for the Bears defense but they've got enough problems stopping WR Drake London besides that. They'd have even bigger problems if tight end Kyle Pitts started making catches but with only 10 receptions he's been less of a threat even than the Bears' Colston Loveland (13 catches). No Edge

Special teams

Cairo Santos last week used his leg better at tripping Packers on the sidelines after they knocked over Bears coaches than he did for kicking the ball. His missed 43-yarder can't happen. Santos isn't going to help as a long-range kicker so accuracy has to be his thing. However, even after that miss he's a better kicker than 41-year-old Falcons kicker Nick Folk. Zavion Thomas got a taste of a breakaway return last week and next time needs to avoid being caught from behind. Atlanta has used former Bear Olamide Zaccheaus, RB Brian Robinson Jr. and Zachariah Branch to return kicks but they're averaging less (24.6) than the Bears have had from Thomas (25.9). No Edge

Coaching

Ben Johnson hasn't had too many opportunities to show his team can bounce back but last year they lost consecutive games twice and that suggests it's not always easy for the coaching staff to reverse negative trends. All of the injuries the Bears have had on defense might have a positive overall effect. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen was at his best last year when he was given less talent due to injuries. Atlanta's Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees aren't known as the most dynamic offensive coaches but they do have outstanding offensive line veteran coach Bill Callahan supporting them. No Edge

Intangibles

The Caleb Williams ruckus, a loss to the Packers and numerous injuries combine with a road game against a talented opponent to leave the Bears staring at a dangerous threat. Atlanta's defense just faced Baltimore and former Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. The Ravens had the upper hand, but is it really an advantage for the Bears if Atlanta is familiar now with this style of offense after seeing it two straight weeks? Edge to Falcons

Picking the winner

Draft Kings Line: Bears by 1 1/2 (over/under 51 1/2)

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Falcons 26, Bears 24

Gene Chamberlain's record vs spread: 2-3 (Overall 2-3, 2-3 over/under)

Key to Bears win: Big gains in the passing game against a Falcons secondary teetering much of the year. A lead via the pass can go a long way toward forcing Atlanta to get away from the run and using Bijan Robinson.

Bears and Falcons betting trends

• The Bears have won seven of the last 11 in the series this century

• The Bears have won seven of their last eight games as favorites of 3 1/2 or less

• The Bears are 7-3 in their last 10 as a favorite

• The Bears are 3-1 ATS in their last four following a loss

• Atlanta has covered the spread in each of its last five as an underdog after a loss

• Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six Sunday home games

• The Bears are 3-2 ATS this season

• Atlanta is 2-3 ATS this season

• It's been under the total in four of the last five Bears games

• It's been over the total in three of Atlanta's five games

• Atlanta is 7-3 in its last 10 as an underdog ATS