Midterm elections are just 12 days away, and a lot hangs in the balance for the GOP. The Texas U.S. Senate race is one of the biggest and most closely watched of the 2026 midterms, as Attorney General Ken Paxton faces off against Democrat James Talarico.
On a recent episode of “Predictable,” BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere highlighted Texas as a major warning sign for Republicans.
Even though polling margins have narrowed between Paxton and Talarico, Stu notes that prediction markets still favor the Democrat.
“A 62% chance for James Talarico to win that race, according to Kalshi right now,” he says.
But he still leaves the door open for Republicans: “Republicans could easily win Texas.”
He notes that one of the show’s recurring thesis points is that voters often “come home” closer to Election Day.
“If you’re a Republican voter, maybe you’re a little upset with Paxton, you get to that voting booth, you kind of say, ‘You know what, I don’t want a Democrat Senate,’ so you might come home,” he says.
The Texas governor’s race between Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa looks more promising for the GOP, but only moderately so, says Stu.
“Greg Abbott in my own state here in Texas [is the] 73% favorite over Gina Hinojosa, who’s running a lot of ads now,” he adds.
“Now it’s got to the point where every single ad is one of these candidates in Texas. They’re spending hundreds of millions of dollars. It’s amazing to watch in action.”
While Abbott currently holds a clear lead on the markets, Stu warns that “Democrats do have a chance to win” the gubernatorial race.
Watch the full episode of “Predictable” to see Stu’s complete Senate map breakdown, how the prediction markets are pricing other key races, and why he thinks some of the movement toward Democrats may be more about money flowing into the markets than actual polling shifts.
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