According to financial commentary publication The Kobeissi Letter, which highlighted the figures in a post on X, the first-quarter decline was larger than the worst quarterly contraction recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
The data also points to a prolonged downturn. The number of eating and drinking establishments in New York State has declined year-on-year for four consecutive quarters, marking the longest such streak since 2021.
The accompanying chart, based on quarterly data from 1990 and sourced from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shows the scale of the reversal. After periods of expansion and earlier contractions, the latest decline stands out as one of the most pronounced movements below the zero-growth line.
Why are New York restaurants shutting down?
The pressure on restaurants extends beyond food prices and customer demand. Operators are grappling with a combination of rising fixed expenses that make it increasingly difficult to remain profitable, particularly for independent restaurants and smaller businesses with limited financial buffers.
Data cited by the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce highlights the sharp rise in operating costs for service-oriented businesses in the New York area last year.
- Employee health insurance: Costs rose 12.9%, increasing the expense of retaining and covering workers.
- Business insurance: Premiums increased 7%, adding to the financial burden on restaurant owners.
- Utilities: Costs surged 8.5%, raising the expense of running kitchens, refrigeration systems, dining areas and other facilities.
These increases can be particularly damaging to restaurants, which must cover substantial expenses regardless of how many customers walk through their doors. Rent, equipment maintenance, food procurement and staffing add to the burden.
When several of these costs rise simultaneously, restaurants have limited options. They can increase menu prices, reduce staffing, absorb lower margins or cut operating hours. However, raising prices risks alienating customers, while cutting costs can affect service quality and the overall dining experience.
High wages and borrowing costs add to the squeeze
Labour and financing expenses are compounding the problem. Restaurants depend on a sizeable workforce for food preparation, service, cleaning and day-to-day operations. Rising wages and minimum-wage requirements increase the cost of maintaining staffing levels, particularly for businesses operating on narrow margins.
Higher interest rates also make it more expensive to finance renovations, purchase equipment, refinance existing debt or fund day-to-day operations. For businesses that borrowed to manage post-pandemic recovery or expansion, elevated borrowing costs can further restrict cash flow.
New York metropolitan area leads in restaurant closures
The strain is also visible in regional closure estimates cited in the input data. The New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island metropolitan area recorded an estimated 491 restaurant closures during the first half of 2026, making it the region with the highest number of closures nationally, according to the figures provided.
New York City itself accounted for 117 closures during the period.
The figures suggest that restaurant distress is not confined to a single neighbourhood or business category. Rather, the pressure is being felt across a broader metropolitan market where operating expenses are rising and businesses must compete for customers while managing higher costs.
However, the closure estimates and the BLS establishment-count figures measure different things and cover different periods. They should not be treated as directly interchangeable: a fall in the number of establishments reflects the net change after openings and closures, whereas closure estimates count businesses that shut down.