Two new research reports put Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) under the microscope and found that the shopping event remains immensely popular, here in the U.S and even overseas. But this year, spending during the holiday weekend is expected to be lackluster.
The other report was based on an analysis of BFCM 2025 online activity. The researchers found that there is still time to make strategic adjustments to drive online conversions.
Researchers at Omnisend, the email and SMS marketing solution provider, polled more than 1,110 U.S. shoppers and found a chilling response. “U.S. shoppers still plan to show up for Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM)—they’re just bringing less home with them,” the report’s authors said, adding that in the U.S., the planned BFCM budget is pegged at $336, which is down 30 percent from $479 last year.
The survey also included consumers from Australia, the U.K. and Canada. The data showed that the share of those planning to spend more than $1,000 this year dropped to 7 percent from 15 percent last year, while the share of shoppers polled who said they are planning to spend under $100 jumped to 14 percent from 5 percent last year.
Looking at where they plan to spend, the researchers said apparel and accessories are the most popular. Of those polled, 38 to 42 percent of consumers across each of the markets surveyed (the U.S., Australia, the U.K. and Canada) said they plan to purchase clothing and accessories this year. Tech gadgets and electronics are second (ranging from 33 to 37 percent), followed by toys and games (26 to 31 percent). “However, compared to last year, all of these categories have decreased in popularity,” the report stated.
Shoppers surveyed said they plan to buy less clothing (38 percent from 57 percent last year), technology (35 percent this year from 53 percent) and toys (31 percent from 38 percent last year).
In the U.S., 78 percent of consumers said they’re feeling price increases, “half say grocery prices are making holiday hosting stressful, and nearly 4 in 10 plan to spend less this season and put the money toward necessities,” the report’s authors said.
And similar to other holiday sentiment polls, when it comes to bigger-ticket items, 38 percent of those polled said they would use buy now, pay later (BNPL) for BFCM.
The data showed that criving buying decisions is an eagerness to save money. Of those surveyed, 52 percent to 57 percent are most influenced by the size of the discount. Meanwhile, 34 percent to 38 percent are motivated by free shipping. “People also appreciate gift bundles and limited-time offers (19 percent to 26 percent),” the report stated.
And when it comes to finding deals, AI is an essential tool. Of those polled, 22 percent of Americans plan to use AI to seek deals and coupons, which compares to 18 percent of British people, 20 percent of Canadians and 21 percent of Australians.
Meanwhile, in a separate report from Hostinger, the agentic platform company, suggests that online merchants prepare now to maximize Black Friday sales. The company crunched the numbers on 49,318 e-commerce stores around the event last year, and found that the sites that made no preparations (no product updates, discounts, coupons or payment changes) saw 5.8 percent more traffic in November than their August–October baseline, yet orders still fell 3.5 percent while sales value declined 6.2 percent. Prepared stores grew orders by around 16 percent and sales also increasing in the double digits/
“Stores that started 8 to 21 days before Black Friday saw orders up 34.2 percent and sales value up 36.7 percent,” the authors of the report said.
As Justinas Vaičiulis, product marketing lead for e-commerce at Hostinger, said, “Black Friday stress-tests the whole commercial setup at once. If traffic rises but sales do not, the problem is not awareness. It means something in the buying journey is getting in the way, whether that is the offer, the product experience, checkout or payment.”
For brands and retailers, these findings signal a critical shift from relying on consumer enthusiasm to executing a precise, value-driven strategy. As shoppers tighten their belts and prioritize essentials, brands can no longer count on high-ticket impulse buys or passive seasonal traffic growth.
Success requires retailers to meet cost-conscious consumers where they are by offering deep discounts, flexible payment options like BNPL, and incentives such as free shipping or bundled offers. As customers increasingly use AI tools to find discounts and compare options, brands must optimize their online store architecture and product data for AI search engines to avoid losing visibility to competitors during peak deal-hunting moments.
At the same time, the research underscores that proactive online store preparation is essential for converting heightened holiday traffic into revenue. Retailers that delay promotional rollouts or fail to streamline the purchasing journey risk a costly decline in order value despite increased visitor numbers.