BATON ROUGE — Wherever the proverbial wall is, LSU football's back is firmly backed up to it.
Lane Kiffin and his Tigers (4-2, 1-2 SEC) have suffered two losses by the midway point of the 2026 regular season, a position where no team has earned an at-large berth into the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff field. That doesn't mean the door is 100% closed, but No. 21 LSU now has zero room for error.
That feels to be a very tricky spot to be in with longtime rival No. 19 Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1) and quarterback Kamario Taylor coming to Baton Rouge for an 11 a.m. CT kickoff Saturday, Oct. 17 on ESPN.
LANE KIFFIN ON KAMARIO TAYLOR Lane Kiffin calls Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor 'a problem'
SAM LEAVITT VS KENTUCKY LSU football QB Sam Leavitt said turnovers hurt Tigers vs Kentucky
LSU is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss at Kentucky, 35-34. The Bulldogs rested last week with an off week.
Here's what to know about the LSU-Mississippi State pivotal SEC showdown.
Kamario Taylor's health
Kiffin called the Bulldogs' sophomore quarterback a "problem" earlier this week. Kiffin's Ole Miss squad saw Taylor in the regular season finale last year and he and current Ole Miss head coach, then defensive coordinator Pete Golding may still be having visions of Taylor gashing the defense.
In that game, Taylor ran for 173 yards and two touchdowns. He nearly rushed for more yards than he threw for; he had 178 passing yards. Ole Miss won the game comfortably, 38-19, but as Kiffin said, Taylor has all the tools to be very problematic for defenses.
Mississippi State wasn't able to firmly challenge Alabama at home two weeks ago before the off week. Taylor threw a couple of interceptions and fumbled the ball. So, turnovers were a major issues, but the dual-threat quarterback was also limited in what he could as he's been contending with a lower leg injury.
It remains to be seen how healthy Taylor will be, but if he's close to 100%, or fully healthy, this game could be very interesting.
Sam Leavitt turnover issues getting perfect matchup?
All season to this point, LSU junior starting quarterback Sam Leavitt has had turnover problems. He's the only quarterback in college football that has thrown an interception in every game this year and his eight picks lead FBS.
It's a very troubling stat and, if that trend continues, more losses are on the way for the Tigers.
But is the Mississippi State defense the perfect matchup for Leavitt? Are the Bulldogs just what the doctor ordered for LSU's gunslinger? So far this season, the Bulldogs have two interceptions and their pass defense is among the worst in the SEC. Mississippi State has also only recovered two fumbles.
Good news for Leavitt is Mississippi State doesn't force turnovers.
Early kickoff makes LSU's matchup with Mississippi State scarier?
The earliest LSU has kicked off a game in the first half of the regular season was 6 p.m. CT. And that was last week.
Does that make this 11 a.m. kickoff spot scary for the Tigers welcoming in Mississippi State? The Bulldogs have only played one game so far at 11 a.m., the loss to Alabama. But it also had a 2:30 p.m. kickoff at Minnesota, which they won, 38-13.
LSU practiced in the mornings during fall camp and in season. So, to Kiffin, there shouldn't been an adjustment for his team.
"I think we'll play really well," Kiffin said earlier this week. "We practice in the morning every day. So they're up doing that. It's really more what their clock is. I used to be more concerned when we went to this format of the night games being opposite of their body clock. So I don't see it being an issue."
LSU football offensive line play
LSU struggled to find traditional balance on offense at Kentucky last week. The Wildcats don't have an awesome rush defense, but were able to keep Tiger running backs Dilin Jones and Harlem Berry from getting much of anything going. They combined for 60 rushing yards.
Mississippi State's rush defense has fared better so far this season than Kentucky's has, allowing almost 16 yards on the ground less. The Bulldogs have given up five rushing scores on the season.
The play up front from LSU's offense must be better this week for the team to keep the Bulldogs at bay. LSU sports the third best running attack in the SEC at 213 yards per game, but Leavitt has played a large role in that and he leads the team in rushing scores with seven.
LSU's offensive line need to open run lanes for Jones and Berry against Mississippi State.
LSU vs Mississippi State prediction
The last time LSU lost under Kiffin a few weeks ago, it was able to bounce back at home and take care of business. Quarterback Kamario Taylor in head coach Jeff Lebby's high-flying offense poses a legit threat to any defense. And this game being an 11 a.m. kickoff also feels like a prime disaster spot for the Tigers. This game will be high scoring, but the question is: which defense will find enough stops to seal the win? I think LSU gets a couple more stops than Mississippi State's defense that averages giving up almost 40 points a game in SEC play. LSU 52, Mississippi State 38
Cory Diaz covers the LSU Tigers for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his Tigers coverage on Twitter: @ByCoryDiaz. Got questions regarding LSU athletics? Send them to Cory Diaz at bdiaz@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: LSU football vs Mississippi State score prediction, scouting report