While skill and fast race cars still matter, luck also plays a huge role in every NASCAR race at Talladega Superspeedway with the 'Big One' lurking around every corner.
In truth, we won't have a firm grasp on the true championship picture until we get this race out of the way. Talladega is an absolute wild card, and it is not overselling it to say that anything can happen this weekend. For example, 26 cars were involved in a single accident in the most recent Cup race at Talladega. A driver can have one hand on the checkered flag and then cross the line backwards in 30th moments later.
But how has the 2.66-mile superspeedway treated the seven realistic title finalists in the past? It's a mixed bag, even for the drivers with the most wins here.
Kyle Larson -- Championship leader
Starts: 23 / Wins: 0 / Top fives: 3 / Top tens: 5 / Laps led: 64 / Avg. finish: 22nd: DNFs: 7
Larson is 0-23 at Talladega, and has never won a superspeedway race before. He's also finished outside the top 20 in half of those starts, with a total of seven DNFs. He hasn't led many laps at Talladega over the years, but he's going to need to be super aggressive this weekend after losing so much ground at Phoenix. Larson will start the race in tenth place.
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
Photo by: David Jensen / Getty Images
Christopher Bell -- 5pts behind
Starts: 13 / Wins: 0 / Top fives: 1 / Top tens: 4 / Laps led: 58 / Avg. finish: 20th / DNFs: 3
Bell is winless at Talladega and only has one top five in 13 starts, which was a fifth back in 2021. In the Next Gen era, he's had speed and top tens but a lot of misfortune as well. In his last five starts, Bell has two DNFs, but also two top tens. He also led 31 laps this past spring at Talladega, which was the most of all drivers that day. He will start sixth in Sunday's Cup race.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
Chase Briscoe -- 24pts behind
Starts: 11 / Wins: 1 / Top fives: 2 / Top tens: 3 / Laps led: 44 / Avg. finish: 16th / DNFs: 1
Briscoe will start Sunday's race from pole position, and is in a great position for some stage points. He's also the best among these seven at finishing these races, though an argument could be made for Reddick too. Briscoe has an average finish of 16th at Talladega (better than all other title contenders), just one DNF, and a victory last fall. However, most of his finishes put him in the mid-field, and he's only led 44 laps at Talladega in 11 starts.
Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Photo by: Chris Graythen - Getty Images
Denny Hamlin -- 31pts behind
Starts: 41 / Wins: 2 / Top fives: 11 / Top tens: 17 / Laps led: 476 / Avg. finish: 17 / DNFs: 6
By far the most experienced driver here with 41 previous Cup races at Talladega, and impressively, only six DNFs despite so many starts. Hamlin also has two wins at this track, but none since 2020. While he continues to be a contender, the past few years have not been kind to him at Talladega with a best finish of only tenth in his last five starts. He will start ninth in Sunday's Cup race.
Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team Ford, Riley Herbst, 23XI Racing Toyota, Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
Ryan Blaney -- 40pts behind
Starts: 24 / Wins: 3 / Top fives: 6 / Top tens: 8 / Laps led: 293 / Avg. finish: 18th / DNFs: 7
Blaney and his Penske teammate Logano mirror each other with how they perform at Talladega. It's usually a case of leading some laps, scoring stage points, and then a pretty good chance of getting wrecked out of the event. Blaney has three wins at Talladega and his most recent came in 2023, but since then, he has a brutal stretch of five straight finishes of 20th or worse -- mainly due to crashes. He will start very deep in the pack on Sunday, qualifying 28th.
Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, Menards/Pennzoil Ford Mustang, Michael McDowell, Front Row Motorsports, Love's Travel Stops Ford Mustang
Photo by: Rusty Jarrett / NKP / Motorsport Images
Joey Logano -- 44pts behind
Starts: 35 / Wins: 3 / Top fives: 9 / Top tens: 11 / Laps led: 571 / Avg. finish: 20th DNFs: 11
Logano is a sneaky driver, and Talladega is the perfect track for him to gain some ground. He has led more laps there than any other active driver. The only setback is that he is either hero or zero at Talladega. While Logano has led laps in each of the last seven Cup races at Talladega, his best result in that same span of time was 16th. He has three victories, but those eleven DNFs in 35 starts is something that's hard to ignore. He led the way in qualifying for Team Penske this weekend, but that still only puts him 16th.
Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Joey Logano, Team Penske, Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing. Austin Cindric, Team Penske, Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing, Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
Tyler Reddick - 56pts behind
Starts: 13 / Wins: 1 / Top fives: 1 / Top tens: 4 / Laps led: 56 / Avg. finish: 17th / DNFs: 2
Reddick enters Talladega with a smile after returning to Victory Lane last weekend at Phoenix. He is now on the outside fringes of this title battle, but with a realistic shot if he can avoid more missteps. He earned a dramatic Cup win here in 2024, and has done a good job of reaching the checkered flag. Reddick has no finishes worse than 20th at Talladega in his last seven starts there, which no other driver on this list can say. Unfortunately, he will have a lot of work to do as the lowest-qualifying Chase driver in 33rd on the grid.
Tyler Reddick damage repair
Photo by: Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
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