Peru’s Terms of Trade Jump 14% on Copper

PERU · ECONOMY

Peru’s terms of trade, which compare export prices with import prices, rose 14.3% in August on the year, Peru’s central bank data show. Prices of copper and gold, the two metals that dominate Peru’s sales abroad, were both more than 30% higher than in August 2025.

The jump matters to US investors because American-listed miners such as Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper run some of Peru’s biggest copper mines. It also means Peru earns far more for each tonne it ships, even while it pays more for imported fuel.

What Peru’s Central Bank Reported

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru, known as the BCRP, sets interest rates and publishes the country’s trade statistics. Its index of the terms of trade stood at 186 points in August, against a base of 100 in 2007.

That reading was 3.8% higher than in July and 14.3% above August 2025, the bank’s monthly series shows. It was the first monthly rise since February, after five straight months of decline.

Lima’s business daily Gestión reported the figures early on Thursday, citing the central bank. The index remains below the 205 points it reached in February 2026, its highest reading so far this year.

Copper and Gold Drive the Jump

Peru’s export price index rose 30.3% on the year and 5.4% from July, central bank data show. Gestión, citing the bank, said copper and gold prices both rose more than 30%, while fishmeal, an animal feed made from anchovies, jumped 86.4%.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper averaged US$6.51 a pound in August, up from US$4.38 a year earlier. Gold averaged US$4,411 a troy ounce, up from US$3,368 in August 2025.

Import costs rose too, but more slowly, with the import price index up 14.0% on the year. Gestión, citing the bank, tied that rise to higher prices for oil and oil products.

Exports and the Trade Surplus

Higher prices pushed up the value of Peru’s sales abroad, with goods exports at US$10.8 billion in August. That was 36.9% more than the US$7.9 billion shipped in August 2025.

Imports reached US$6.1 billion in August, leaving a trade surplus of about US$4.7 billion for the month. A year earlier, the gap between exports and imports was about US$2.8 billion.

The figures follow the finance ministry’s statement that Peru’s exports hit a record US$83 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Apparel did not share the boom, with exports down 5.7% to US$764.1 million from January to August, La República reported, citing the exporters’ association ADEX.

What Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi bettors gave copper an 85% chance of trading above US$6.60 a pound at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, as of 3:46 a.m. ET. Kalshi is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and 76,069 contracts had traded on that market.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For US investors, stronger metal prices raise income at Peruvian mines owned or run by companies listed in New York. Freeport-McMoRan, for example, controls the Cerro Verde copper mine near Arequipa with a 55.66% stake.

Southern Copper, whose shares also trade in New York, runs the Toquepala copper mine in the south. For Peru, better terms of trade usually mean more dollars flowing in and more tax revenue from mining.

For US buyers of wire, cables and electronics, the same rally means copper costs far more than a year ago. Copper averaged US$6.51 a pound in August, about US$2.13 more than in August 2025.

What Is Not Known

It is not clear whether the rally will last into the final months of the year. Copper averaged US$6.57 a pound in September, slightly above August, while gold slipped to US$4,319 an ounce, central bank data show.

Oil could eat into the gain, because US crude averaged US$97.10 a barrel in September, up from US$83.90 in August, central bank figures show. September’s terms of trade index has not yet been published.

Peru’s statistics office, INEI, is due to publish August economic output later on Thursday. How much of the export windfall reaches growth, wages and public budgets is still open.

More: Peru news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are terms of trade?

Terms of trade compare the prices a country gets for its exports with the prices it pays for its imports. When the index rises, each unit a country sells abroad buys more imports.

Why did Peru’s terms of trade rise in August?

Export prices rose 30.3% on the year, led by copper and gold, while import prices rose 14.0%. Copper averaged US$6.51 a pound and gold US$4,411 an ounce in August.

How large was Peru’s trade surplus in August?

Goods exports reached US$10.8 billion and imports US$6.1 billion, leaving a surplus of about US$4.7 billion. A year earlier, the surplus was about US$2.8 billion.

Which US companies benefit from Peru’s copper prices?

Freeport-McMoRan, listed in New York, controls the Cerro Verde copper mine near Arequipa. Southern Copper, whose shares also trade in New York, runs the Toquepala copper mine in southern Peru.

Sources: Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP), terms of trade index (2007 = 100), monthly series PN38923BM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, export price index, monthly series PN38915BM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, import price index, monthly series PN38919BM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, copper price (LME, monthly average), series PN01652XM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, gold price (monthly average), series PN01654XM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, goods exports FOB, series PN38714BM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, goods imports FOB, series PN38718BM, 15 October 2026; BCRP, WTI crude oil price (monthly average), series PN01660XM, 15 October 2026; Gestión, “Términos de intercambio crecieron 14.3% interanual en agosto, afirma BCR”, 15 October 2026; Freeport-McMoRan, South America operations (Cerro Verde), 15 October 2026; Office of the US Trade Representative, United States-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, 15 October 2026; La República, “Exportaciones peruanas de prendas de vestir caen 5,7% y Perú pierde terreno en Estados Unidos” (ADEX data), 14 October 2026; Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), release calendar (Producción Nacional, 15 October), 15 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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