Two undefeated teams with College Football Playoff ambitions meet on Saturday night with plenty on the line. For both Notre Dame and BYU, a win here means brownie points with the selection committee. A loss means excuses and less margin for error.
Anyone expecting a blowout on either side of the ledger should think again. The advanced numbers suggest a closer contest than some might expect.
The SP+ Projection
One of college football’s most cited prediction models, the SP+ system currently rates Notre Dame as a favorite, but a narrow one. It gives the Irish a 60 percent chance to win, but as just four points better than BYU in a projected 28-24 game.
The narrow margin accounts for Notre Dame’s overall edge while factoring in the difficulty of playing at elevation in a very inhospitable LaVell Edwards Stadium.
How the teams stack up
Notre Dame is 6-0 and has won every game by double digits. The Irish allow about 11 points per game and rank first nationally in total defense.
CJ Carr has completed more than 70 percent of his passes for 16 touchdowns and one interception. He leads an offense that ranks among the national leaders in efficiency metrics, sitting second in FBS in points per drive.
BYU is 5-0 and ranked eighth. The Cougars allow 13.4 points per game and have not given up more than 23 in any contest.
Bear Bachmeier has handled a heavier load after running back LJ Martin’s injury, contributing both as a passer and runner. BYU’s defense generates pressure and turnovers, and the home environment has been a consistent advantage.
Who wins and why?
Notre Dame holds the clearer path to victory based on overall roster depth and defensive consistency. The Irish have shown the ability to control games against lesser competition and should create enough big plays to overcome the road setting.
BYU has the tools to stay competitive through physical defense and Bachmeier’s dual-threat presence, but generating consistent offense against Notre Dame’s top-ranked unit remains a significant challenge.
The projected score of 28-24 appears realistic. Notre Dame is the more complete team and is positioned to leave Provo still undefeated.
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