College football picks: Unranked teams 9-198 now against No. 1s since 2000; No. 1 Miami now on deck

Beware, Miami, when Pittsburgh comes to town Saturday.

The No. 1 team in The Associated Press Top 25 has lost to unranked opponents two straight weeks. First, Oklahoma knocked off Texas, and then Auburn upset Georgia.

Unranked teams are 9-198 against No. 1s since 2000, according to Sportradar. The only other year No. 1 teams lost twice to non-Top 25 opponents over that span was 2007.

Auburn is one of two schools with two wins over No. 1s as an unranked team since 2000. The other is Texas A&M.

The picks, with rankings and betting lines. All games are on Saturday:

Pittsburgh at No. 1 Miami (minus 20)

The newly minted No. 1 Hurricanes’ defense is better than it showed against Florida State. Hurricanes had allowed 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards through five games and gave up seven to FSU.

Pick: Miami 31-10.

No. 2 BYU (minus 7) at UCF

Lots of talk about this being a trap game for Cougars coming off their big win over Notre Dame. It won’t happen unless they let UCF QB Keyone Jenkins get on a roll.

Pick: BYU 28-20.

No. 6 Indiana at Michigan (plus 7)

Curt Cignetti visits the Big House for the first time following his Hoosiers’ loss to Ohio State. Yet to be seen is whether Wolverines start Tommy Carr at QB over Bryce Underwood.

Pick: Indiana 21-17.

No. 7 Mississippi (plus 3) at No. 19 Texas

Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels can stick dagger in Texas’ playoff hopes. Longhorns haven’t lost three straight since 2021.

Pick: Mississippi 31-30.

No. 8 Texas Tech (minus 10 1/2) at Cincinnnati

Tech had 43 points and over 400 yards by halftime against Arizona State last week. Bearcats have given up over 500 yards two straight games.

Pick: Texas Tech 35-23.

Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA (minus 14)

Ty Dieffenbach was impressive in his first start in place of the injured UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava. Bruins’ front seven and their pass rush will be too much for Spartans.

Pick: UCLA 30-14.

No. 14 Houston (plus 6 1/2) at No. 10 Utah

Cougars are playing with urgency to keep up in the Big 12 standings. Utes got a surprising challenge from Colorado in the second half last week.

Pick: Houston 33-24.

No. 11 Tennessee (plus 2 1/2) at South Carolina

Volunteers could be in for a comedown after beating Alabama. Gamecocks are coming off an open date and need LaNorris Sellers to play like he did against Florida two weeks ago.

Pick: South Carolina 26-24.

Vanderbilt at No. 12 Kentucky (minus 11)

No team has regressed more than Vandy, whose 2025 season was best in program history. Wildcats, who have won last three games by a total of 10 points, should have an easier time this week.

Pick: Kentucky 36-20.

Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama (minus 14)

Alabama is looking for Keelon Russell to regain his form and get the offense cranked up again. Last time Tide lost three in a row was 2007, Nick Saban’s first season.

Pick: Alabama 29-14.

No. 15 Iowa at Minnesota (plus 7)

Jeremy Hecklinski will make second straight start for Iowa, and Floyd of Rosedale will belong to the Hawkeyes a third straight year.

Pick: Iowa 24-19.

No. 16 Southern California (minus 3) at Wisconsin

Badgers have had trouble getting pressure on QBs. That’s a problem against Jayden Maiava, whose line has allowed just three sacks by Pro Football Focus’ count.

Pick: USC 28-21.

No. 18 LSU (minus 7 1/2) at Auburn

LSU has lost both its road games, against ranked opponents, but should capitalize on opportunity against unranked Auburn team that could have emotional hangover from the Georgia upset.

Pick: LSU 33-21.

No. 21 Boise State (minus 13) at Washington State

Broncos have been held under 32 points only once and Maddux Madsen, who has 13 TD passes against no interceptions, is completing 70% of his passes since the opener at Oregon.

Pick: Boise State 38-24.

California at No. 23 SMU (minus 19 1/2)

Cal is banged up but Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele could be back as starting QB after a concussion three weeks ago. ACC passing leader Kevin Jennings faces a Cal defense that gives up lots of big plays.

Pick: SMU 42-21.

Rutgers (plus 16) at No. 24 Northwestern

KJ Duff, the Big Ten’s No. 2 receiver, gives Scarlet Knights a passing game to be reckoned with. Pass defense is Wildcats’ weakness. They sorely need star safety Robert Fitzgerald back from injury.

Pick: Rutgers 28-27.

Iowa State (plus 10) at No. 25 Arizona

Cyclones’ defense has been good enough to keep them in games, but they haven’t seen a passer like Arizona’s Noah Fifita.

Pick: Arizona 26-17.

Byes: No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 5 Georgia, No. 17 Wake Forest, No. 20 Florida, No. 22 Missouri.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 7-8; Against spread — 8-7.

Season: Straight-up — 90-32; Against spread — 60-61-1.

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