Insecurity threatens Nigeria’s economic growth, others — NESG

Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that insecurity remains a major threat to Nigeria’s economic growth, investment, food security and infrastructure development, stressing that security must be treated as a foundational component of the country’s economic planning.

The NESG said no business plan could survive in a war zone, just as farmers would be unwilling to invest in land they could not safely access, while infrastructure could not generate value if it remained vulnerable to attacks.

The group made the submission ahead of the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #32), scheduled for October 26 and 27, 2026, at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja, with the theme, “Growth that Works: Delivering Jobs, Productivity and Shared Prosperity.”

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According to the NESG, the “Secure Nigeria” sub-theme of the summit would place the restoration of safety and stability at the centre of discussions on economic development.

It said without security, objectives such as job creation, industrialisation, shared prosperity and subnational economic growth would either remain unattainable or become significantly more expensive to achieve.

“The argument is direct: without security, every other goal, be it job creation, industrialisation, shared prosperity or subnational growth becomes either impossible or profoundly more costly to achieve,” the group said.

The NESG noted that insecurity was already imposing high economic costs on the country, particularly through the displacement of farmers across the North-West, North-Central and North-East.

It said the loss of access to farmland had contributed to declining local food production and worsening food insecurity, with international organisations including the World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation repeatedly highlighting Nigeria’s food insecurity challenges.

It further identified crude oil theft in the Niger Delta as another major economic consequence of insecurity, noting that oil bunkering had deprived the country of substantial export revenues and, at various periods, significantly reduced crude oil production below official targets.

According to the group, attacks on oil infrastructure had compounded the problem by creating additional repair costs and discouraging investments required to expand production capacity.

The NESG also raised concerns over attacks on critical infrastructure, particularly power transmission equipment and telecommunications facilities.

It said the destruction of transformers, transmission infrastructure and telecommunications towers had consequences that extended beyond the immediate locations of attacks, disrupting businesses, households and communities dependent on electricity and digital connectivity.

On agriculture, the group said farmer-herder conflicts, banditry and terrorist activities had displaced millions of agricultural households from productive areas, particularly in the northern parts of the country.

It said the North-West, traditionally one of Nigeria’s major food-producing regions, had witnessed significant reductions in cultivated land as farmers abandoned their fields because of insecurity.

The summit, it added, would examine measures for restoring safe access to farmland and stabilising agricultural production in affected regions.

Proposed interventions include community-based security models, strategic deployment of law enforcement personnel along key agricultural corridors, technology-enabled early warning systems and policies aimed at addressing resource competition underlying farmer-herder conflicts.

The NESG also said the protection of critical infrastructure must become a national economic priority.

It explained that attacks on power and telecommunications infrastructure could disrupt electricity supply across large sections of the national grid and disconnect communities from mobile money, digital markets, emergency services and other essential services.

The summit would therefore consider a comprehensive framework for protecting critical infrastructure through physical security, community engagement, rapid repair mechanisms and stronger legal deterrents against vandalism and attacks.

On the oil sector, the NESG said reducing crude oil theft would require a combination of improved governance, operational reforms and stronger engagement with communities in the Niger Delta.

It listed greater transparency in the upstream value chain, enhanced monitoring technologies, economic inclusion of host communities and stronger enforcement against domestic and international networks involved in crude oil theft as areas for consideration.

The group also linked insecurity to declining investor confidence, warning that businesses and investors factor security risks into decisions on where to commit capital.

It said countries facing widespread insecurity and vulnerable production zones were likely to attract higher financing costs and lower investment volumes, while investors could favour short-term and extractive activities over long-term productive investments.

“Restoring security therefore has a dual economic dividend: it directly reduces losses, and it signals to the market that Nigeria is a viable environment for productive investment,” the NESG said.

It stressed that the response to insecurity must go beyond military and law enforcement interventions, advocating a “whole-of-society” approach involving economic, governance and social interventions.

According to the group, poverty, inequality, unemployment and exclusion were among the underlying conditions that could fuel insecurity and should therefore be addressed as strategic components of national security.

The NESG said NES #32 would examine how economic development programmes, social protection, community investment and conflict-sensitive governance could complement security operations to achieve lasting stability.

“Security and development are not alternatives, they are complements. A Nigeria that invests in both will be more stable, more productive, and more prosperous,” it said.

The Secure Nigeria dialogue at the summit is expected to bring together security experts, policymakers, business leaders, community representatives and development partners to develop a shared agenda for improving security and strengthening Nigeria’s economic prospects.