Bitcoin traded near USD 83,000 on October 11 after another difficult week. A CryptoQuant analysis now places USD 74,500 as a possible downside level if selling continues. The estimate comes from earlier Bitcoin bull markets, rather than a forecast of where the cryptocurrency will trade next.
The cryptocurrency remains below its early-October highs as investors monitor fund withdrawals and large trading positions. Its latest rebound has not erased the week's losses.
Bitcoin Drawdown Points to USD 74,500
CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D examined how far Bitcoin has fallen during previous price rallies. The analysis, published on October 9, compared five bull market cycles and calculated an average pullback of 14.39% from earlier peaks.
Bitcoin fell from USD 87,027 on October 5 to USD 80,404 on October 9. That represented a decline of USD 6,623, or about 7.61%. Applying the historical average of 14.39% to the October 5 price gives a figure near USD 74,500.
MAC_D described the level as one “which could serve as a reference point in the event of further downside.” The conditional wording matters since the calculation does not establish that Bitcoin will reach that price.
Past Bitcoin Cycles Show Different Losses
The study recorded an average pullback of 18.41% during 2010–2011 and 21.71% during 2011–2013. Later periods showed 10.93% in 2015–2017 and 19.39% in 2018–2021. The 2022–2025 period recorded a smaller average of 7.58%.
Bitcoin's October decline of 7.61% was close to that latest figure. However, the previous cycles varied widely, and some individual drops exceeded their respective averages. As a result, the longer-term average offers a comparison rather than a fixed support price.
The figures also show how much corrections can differ between cycles. Earlier periods recorded larger average declines than the most recent cycle, so the five-period mean does not describe every market equally.
Based on that history, MAC_D suggested gradual purchases around USD 80,000 and larger purchases in the USD 74,000 to USD 75,000 range. The comments described a possible buying approach, not confirmed demand at either level.
Bitcoin Price Stays Near USD 83,000
Bitcoin traded at approximately USD 83,063 early on October 11, after touching USD 80,308 during the week. Its price remained roughly 34% below the record high of USD 126,080 reached on October 6, 2025.
The latest trading period also marked one year since the October 10, 2025, crypto selloff. Bitcoin dropped from around USD 122,000 to USD 105,000 during that event, while liquidations across the crypto market exceeded USD 19 billion. About 1.6 million trading accounts were affected.
Leverage remains part of the current market picture. Recent positioning estimates put possible Bitcoin short liquidations near USD 3.3 billion if prices rise towards USD 85,000. Such liquidations could add buying pressure as traders close bets on falling prices.
ETF Outflows Add to Market Pressure
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than USD 700 million in net withdrawals during the week, according to market figures published on October 11. These funds allow investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through stock exchange products.
Weekly outflows indicate that more money left the products than entered during the period. However, one week of withdrawals does not establish whether investors will continue redeeming shares in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the USD 85,000 level remains a near-term price area traders are watching. A move above it could affect short positions, while renewed selling would bring lower levels back into view.
For now, the USD 74,500 estimate remains a historical comparison. Bitcoin has recovered from its weekly low, but the calculation only describes what a decline matching the five-cycle average would look like.
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