South Africa’s motorists could see petrol prices edge lower and diesel prices drop by more than R1.70 per litre in November 2026, following the government’s temporary fuel levy cuts.
The latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data shows that petrol and diesel remain significantly under-recovered, pointing to further increases if current market conditions persist without intervention.
However, the temporary fuel levy reductions announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana during his MTBPS speech on Wednesday have changed the outlook, with the latest projections indicating potential price cuts across all four main fuel grades.
The CEF figures as of Thursday, 22 October, show petrol 93 with an under-recovery of R1.38 per litre and petrol 95 under-recovered by R1.27 per litre.
Diesel 0.05% is under-recovered by R1.29 per litre, while diesel 0.005% has an under-recovery of R1.24 per litre.
How much could fuel prices drop in November?
Godongwana announced a temporary fuel levy reduction as part of a R10 billion relief package intended to ease pressure on consumers.
For November, the general fuel levy will be reduced by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3 per litre for diesel.
Based on the latest CEF snapshot and the relief measures, the indicative November inland prices are:
| Fuel type | Oct price | Nov projection | Potential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R29.88 | R29.76 | -12c/l |
| Petrol 95 | R30.25 | R30.02 | -23c/l |
| Diesel 0.05% | R31.95 | R30.24 | -R1.71/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | R33.29 | R31.53 | -R1.76/l |
These are projections rather than confirmed prices. The final adjustments will depend on the remainder of the month’s market movements and other pricing factors, including the slate levy.
Oil prices could wipe out petrol cuts
The outlook remains uncertain as international oil prices rise amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Oil climbed to around $115 per barrel during the week, while the rand traded at around R16.50 to the US dollar.
Both factors influence South Africa’s fuel prices and could erode the projected savings before the end of October.
A weaker rand, further oil price increases or a significant slate levy adjustment could turn the projected cuts into increases.
The new prices are scheduled to take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 November.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $113.18 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.57/$.