Hurricane Simon stayed off Jalisco’s coast on Sunday and weakened to Category 3. The risk now moves north, toward Nayarit and Sinaloa.
Key Facts
- Where it is On Sunday 11 October 2026, Simon was a Category 3 hurricane about 80 km (50 miles) south of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, moving parallel to the coast. Its winds were about 205 km/h (127 mph).
- Landfall The centre had not come ashore by Sunday evening. The US National Hurricane Center expects it to keep moving north-west into early Tuesday, then turn north-east and cross west-central Mexico around midweek. Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Wednesday or Thursday.
- Warnings A hurricane warning covers the coast from Playa Perula in Jalisco to El Roblito in Nayarit, and the Islas Marías. A hurricane watch reaches north to Bahía Tempehuaya in Sinaloa. Storm-total rain could reach 30 inches (about 760 mm) in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco.
- Flights Puerto Vallarta airport closed at 6 p.m. on Saturday. The operator planned to reopen it at 8 a.m. on Monday 12 October, if inspections allow.
- Prediction markets Polymarket prices Simon’s peak at Category 4 at 97.0% (US$17,520 traded; bets, not polls). Kalshi prices Category 5 or above at 7%. Stand: 12 October 2026, 00:45 ET.
Where Simon Stands
Simon reached Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale on Saturday 10 October. It peaked at about 250 km/h (155 mph) that evening, according to the US National Hurricane Center. By 6 p.m. Mexico City time on Sunday it was a Category 3 hurricane with winds of about 205 km/h (127 mph), Mexico’s weather service reported.
The forecast track shifted on Sunday. Mexican authorities had expected the centre to come ashore on the Jalisco coast. Instead it moved north-northwest, parallel to the shore.
What Is Next for Sinaloa and Nayarit
The hurricane centre’s advisory 19, issued at 03:00 UTC on Monday 12 October, expects Simon to keep moving north-west into early Tuesday. It then turns north-east and moves over west-central Mexico around midweek. Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Wednesday or Thursday as a tropical storm or a post-tropical system. A forecast this far ahead can move by tens of kilometres.
Nayarit closed its beaches and banned alcohol sales, El Financiero reported on 10 October. Authorities in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Nayarit suspended non-essential activities and opened shelters. President Claudia Sheinbaum asked residents to stay indoors.
What It Means for Visitors and Residents
If you live or travel on the coast of Jalisco, Nayarit or Sinaloa, follow the instructions of local civil protection offices. They decide on shelters, curfews and road closures.
Flights are the main practical problem. Puerto Vallarta airport was closed from 6 p.m. on Saturday, with a planned reopening at 8 a.m. on Monday. These times depend on safety inspections. Contact your airline before you go to the airport, and keep your hotel booking flexible if you can.
After the wind drops, heavy rain can still cause flooding and landslides in hilly areas. Our checklist for foreigners lists what to prepare.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket prices Simon’s peak at Category 4 at 97.0% and Category 5 at about 3% (US$17,520 traded). Kalshi, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prices Category 5 or above at 7%. Stand: 12 October 2026, 00:45 ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We have not found an official count of damage or injuries from the Sunday bulletins. The latest hurricane centre bulletin we could read is advisory 19 (03:00 UTC on Monday 12 October), through a mirror page, so later changes are not included. We also do not know whether Puerto Vallarta airport will reopen on time.
The picture has two sides. Simon weakened and stayed off the coast, which lowered the wind risk for Jalisco. The rain and the track toward Sinaloa still need watching, and the eastern Pacific hurricane season runs to 30 November.
Sources
- US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Simon advisories of 10 and 11 October 2026 (read through mirror pages, because the NHC site blocks our servers).
- Infobae, report of 11 October 2026 on Simon’s intensity and position (Mexico’s weather service).
- Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, via López Dóriga (Sinaloa timing, 11 October 2026).
- La Jornada and El Financiero, reports of 10 October 2026 on the Puerto Vallarta airport closure and Nayarit’s measures.
- Polymarket and Kalshi, Hurricane Simon category markets, read 12 October 2026, 00:45 ET.
More on the region: Mexico hub. Related coverage: today’s LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide, South America Holiday Closures on 12 October 2026 and Mexican Peso Falls Past 18.40 on Central Bank Minutes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Hurricane Simon make landfall in Jalisco?
Not as of Sunday evening, 11 October 2026. Reports from the US National Hurricane Center and Mexico’s weather service said the centre was moving parallel to the coast, about 80 km (50 miles) south of Cabo Corrientes, as a Category 3 hurricane. The hurricane centre expects it to cross west-central Mexico around midweek, and Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Wednesday or Thursday.
Is Puerto Vallarta airport open?
The airport closed at 6 p.m. on Saturday 10 October. The operator said it planned to reopen at 8 a.m. on Monday 12 October, if inspections allow. Check your airline before you travel, because these times are provisional.
What should visitors in Mazatlán do?
Follow instructions from Sinaloa’s civil protection service, and keep your passport, phone charger and medicines together. Ask your hotel or airline about changes. Forecast points can shift, so rely on the latest official bulletin.