As somebody on Twitter pointed out the other day, there are some significant disagreements in the preseason ratings between Pomeroy and Torvik, maybe more than usual. At least in NC State’s case, those two systems have lined up pretty close in the past, but not so this year—Torvik is a lot more optimistic about NC State than Pomeroy. Evan Miya’s system is also substantially higher on the Pack than Pomeroy’s this preseason.
All three agree on an ACC top four of Duke, UVA, Miami, and Louisville in some order, though Torvik is the most bullish on that group overall, mostly because it likes their offenses more than the other systems—also true in State’s case, as you can see.
There’s a coaching component to the Pomeroy Ratings, and maybe having a first-time head coach is dinging the Pack a bit in that system, but I’m just spitballing here.
So which one of these projections will be closest to the mark? If defense does prove to be a calling card for Justin Gainey like we hope/think it will, then all three are underestimating NC State’s efficiency on that side of the ball. I don’t think State’s going to have a top-10 offense but it’s not going to be a liability, either. Less than three weeks until we start getting some answers.