Myles Garrett's Return Won't Fix Rams; The Caleb Williams Stat Ben Johnson Loves Most

Sean McVay seems to be at a loss. Of course, he and the Los Angeles Rams literally lost to the Arizona Cardinals, 18-16, on Sunday. But McVay — the man who seemed to know everything about football — doesn’t have any answers right now. Not for the team's offensive issues. Not for the postgame questions. Not for the Cardinals' offense. It’s a rare state of alarm for McVay and L.A. Their loss was the biggest storyline and biggest surprise from Sunday’s slate of games. So let’s hit that. Let’s also look at one statistic from Caleb Williams that Bears coach Ben Johnson is going to love. Let’s highlight an incredible play design, a QB who’s making himself a lot of money and a head coach who's made himself impossible to fire. Welcome to Sound Smart, where I take you beyond what’s obvious. Let’s go below the surface. Let’s spin it forward, dive deeper, think outside the box and read between the lines. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL's Week 6 action. There’s one thing that must be most discouraging for the Rams after their upset loss to the Cardinals: Myles Garrett’s return won’t fix this team. The star edge rusher is due back from knee surgery within the next couple of weeks. But that alone won't turn this team around. Cornerback Trent McDuffie’s return won’t fix this. Rams legend Aaron Donald’s return didn’t fix this. And the return of star receiver Puka Nacua didn’t fix this. That has been the team's refrain this season: Just wait until X, Y, Z gets back on the field. But sitting at the bottom of the NFC West with a 2-4 record, the Rams have bigger issues — namely their offense, along with their special teams. Garrett isn’t going to make those units better. Neither will McDuffie. That’s all on coach Sean McVay and his quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Stafford finished Sunday's game with a season-low 4.8 air yards per attempt. That’s his third-worst number as a Ram. And it’s especially meaningful because … it was against the Cardinals, who were giving up 236.8 passing yards per game going into this week — eighth-worst in the NFL. This game should’ve been an easy win for the Rams. They didn’t just make it look hard. They did that — and lost. It was a bad enough game that running back Kyren Williams called out the coaches for not playing him more. He was asked why the Rams' offense lacked energy from drive to drive. "Can’t tell you, bro," Williams said, via ESPN’s Sarah Barshop. "Probably because I’m not out there." You don't hear Rams players calling out the coaching staff like that over playing time. It speaks to bigger issues. The extent of the Rams’ dysfunction is widespread. It’s on offense. It’s on special teams. It’s in the locker room. "There’s nothing I can say about today," McVay told reporters after the game. "We have to be able to not beat ourselves, let alone figure out how to come away with some results." This is a common refrain for an uncommon set of problems for the Rams. They look complacent. They sometimes look checked out. And strangest of all, when Stafford finally gets the offense moving, they flash their potential. And that flash of production leaves everyone wondering: Why can't they play like that all the time? The Rams are obviously not a Super Team. They’re not even meeting the standards they set for themselves in years past. They’re mired in dysfunction — and perhaps the frustration of failing to meet expectations. And they’re spiraling, seeing their playoff odds slip to 43%, per Next Gen Stats. I think that’s actually generous. It’s hard to spot the eight teams the Rams can beat to fight their way into the playoffs. McVay needs to figure out how to ignite this team and turn around his season. Because he’s running out of time. Caleb Williams completed 83.3% of his passes against the Falcons' defense on Sunday. And this wasn’t a small-volume approach. Johnson let the Bears QB throw early and often in his return from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for three weeks. Williams was 30-of-36 for 305 passing yards and a touchdown. His +12.4 completion percentage over expected was the second-highest of his career. No, Atlanta’s defense isn’t good, so it’s not like it was hard to imagine Williams having success. But at this level of efficiency? Well, it should stop you in your tracks, given he completed only 58.1% of his passes last season — and Johnson has spent the past two years talking about how badly he wants his QB above 65%. Though it's still a small sample size, Williams now leads the NFL with a 72.5% completion percentage. He has always had a careful approach with the football. He doesn’t throw interceptions and, last year, he avoided sacks at a clip that was outstanding. But he wasn’t a game manager. He spent most of last season coming from behind — and often securing victory. It was unfamiliar territory for Williams and the Bears on Sunday as they took the lead early and had to protect that lead against an Atlanta offense that came roaring back, particularly when Chicago’s defense opened the door. It feels like Williams is learning to settle into that title: "game manager." He doesn't have to be "Iceman" or "Cardiac Caleb" all the time. The Bears didn’t ask Williams to do much in the fourth quarter, throwing the ball just two times for two completions and 24 yards — and then carrying the ball for a few short runs. But his overall efficiency throughout the game ultimately made the Bears’ lead insurmountable. Every week, Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle brings something to life that is unlike anything I’ve seen before. And this week, there were two plays that really seemed to give opposing defenses a swirlie. (Here’s the other one.) The smartest play of the week came on first-and-10 in the Ravens’ loss to the Browns when QB Tyler Huntley — filling in for the injured Lamar Jackson — connected with Jake Cuevas for a 29-yard pickup. If Huntley had hit the tight end in stride, he would’ve gone for a massive play. But Huntley threw it too far in front of Cuevas, who stumbled and fell. Regardless, the beauty of the play came before the snap, with Cuevas lining up in the area where a left guard would normally be. He set up off the line, and therefore was an eligible receiver. The only time I’ve seen anything remotely similar was when the Patriots first started tinkering with eligibility in a comeback win over the Ravens in the 2014 playoffs. New England lined up an ineligible player, Shane Vereen, in the slot and put tight end Michael Hoomanawanui at tackle, where he was eligible — and quite productive running uncovered through the Baltimore defense. That was when the NFL changed the rules. And the Ravens will have to be careful about flirting with rule-breaking here. "You have to line up either clearly on or off the line of scrimmage. To me, he’s not clearly in the backfield and the formation is illegal," FOX Sports rules analyst Dean Blandino told me. The more Doyle does quirky things like this, the more teams will have to prepare for them. And that’ll slow down opposing defenses, which is useful for the Ravens' offense, especially while they try to eke out wins with backup QB Huntley. C.J. Stroud is going to get paid. It remains to be seen if the Texans are going to make the playoffs. But Stroud has already made it impossible for Houston to do anything other than extend his contract. The exact figures — average annual value and guaranteed dollars — are TBD. That’s what will be determined over the next 10 games (or more). But if you were like me in thinking maybe the Texans might consider moving on from Stroud in 2027, then you can completely put that out of your mind. I certainly have. Because with a quarterback like Stroud, it’s usually fair to get apprehensive about how he handles pressure. (On a macro level: playoff pressure and/or contract pressure. And on a micro level: a pass-rusher bearing down on him.) On Sunday against the Jaguars, Stroud was about as good as he’s ever been. He was 24-of-34 for 312 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Against pressure (and the blitz), he had answers, knowing where to put the ball — and quick enough that he neutered the blitzes. He completed 10 of 11 passes under pressure (90.9%) for 118 yards and two touchdowns, per Next Gen Stats. His 90.9% completion rate was the highest he’s ever had under pressure in a game. And the Jaguars blitzed him on 37.1% of dropbacks, the highest rate he's faced in a game this season. Even as the Texans slipped to 0-4, there was so much to like about how Stroud was playing. He was efficient and doing what he could to carry his ailing defense. In two of Houston's three one-possession losses, he got the Texans ahead with 2:20 and 1:40 left on the clock. The defense responded by allowing touchdowns. That doesn’t excuse Stroud for the things he did to lead the Texans into a hole, which included two brutal sacks and a fumble to lose the game against the Bills. But hopefully, it contextualized why I feel there was plenty to like from the Texans' 0-4 start. But now they’re 2-4. And with this win over the Jaguars (who I think can still be the AFC’s No. 1 seed), the Texans could win their next four games: vs. Giants, @ Chargers, @ Browns and vs. Colts. That would have the Texans going into their Week 12 matchup against the Ravens with a 6-4 record. And at that point, Stroud could be a dark-horse MVP candidate. Because he could do what only one NFL team has ever done: make the playoffs after starting 0-4. There is an unusual and downright unsettling competence in Cleveland. And I think that’s linked to the fact that there is something unusual and downright enjoyable about watching Browns coach Todd Monken. It’s honestly a stunner that Monken has worked out for Cleveland. He’s the guy who missed the coach’s photo at the owners' meetings — in order to get a haircut for the coach’s photo. He’s the guy who got ousted in Baltimore along with John Harbaugh, and was reportedly the sticking point that got Harbaugh fired. (Lamar Jackson apparently wanted Monken out as OC while Harbaugh wanted him to stay). Monken was hired as the Browns' head coach in part because no one else wanted the gig. Candidates Mike McDaniel, Jesse Minter, Grant Udinski and Chris Shula declined to interview with Cleveland. (It was a little embarrassing for the Browns.) I’ll admit that I thought Monken, a first-time head coach at age 60, was essentially a sacrificial hire — a guy set up to fail and last just one year. The Browns looked like a team that would tank in 2026, replace Monken and take a quarterback at the top of the 2027 NFL Draft. And finally, they’d be rid of Deshaun Watson, who was the centerpiece of the worst trade in NFL history. And who remains the most difficult player to watch on this team, because of his underwhelming on-field play and because of the off-field allegations. That plan feels downright impossible now, with the Browns sitting at 4-2 and the No. 1 spot in the AFC North. They have a 38% shot at the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats. It’s lower than those of the Ravens (57%) and Steelers (54%), but it’s a heck of a lot better than anyone could’ve guessed. Cleveland’s defense looks elite, including edge Jared Verse, who arrived from the Rams when the team traded Myles Garrett. The young group of offensive playmakers — from tight Harold Fannin to receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion to running back Quinshon Judkins — is impressive. When the Browns do move on from Watson this offseason, they’ll be a dangerous team. And that’ll be because of the way Monken is building a culture. He’s winning ugly now. But with a better quarterback? The Browns might someday be fun to watch. Someday soon.