Brazil’s Congress’s shift to the right could change Latin America’s powerhouse. Here’s what to know

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil’s elections have shifted its Congress to the right regardless of who wins Sunday’s presidential runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Many lawmakers taking office in February 2027 are keen to reshape the nation’s Supreme Court, economy, human rights protections and environmental policies.

If right-wing and centrist lawmakers unite, they will command a simple majority in the 513-seat lower house and could even assemble a supermajority in a broad alliance to change Brazil’s constitution. A similar dynamic is expected in the Senate. Analysts and politicians agree there could be long-lasting impacts in Brazil and in Latin America.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won an additional 23 seats in the lower house and nearly doubled its Senate seats, mostly at the expense of centrist parties. Lula’s Workers’ Party held onto roughly the same number of seats.

Those figures could still change as some lawmakers change parties after their election.

Here is a look at how this right-leaning Congress could reshape Brazil’s agenda.

Supreme Court changes expected to be a priority

Bolsonaro’s congressional allies want, above all, to impeach Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who chaired the investigation that put former President Jair Bolsonaro in prison for his attempted coup.

They need 54 votes in the Senate, and many of the future members ran precisely on an impeach de Moraes platform. Brazil’s next president will be able to appoint at least three new justices.

Right-leaning lawmakers have also expressed their wish to curtail individual rulings from Supreme Court justices, who have often suspended laws, issued sweeping injunctions and made high-impact orders without the authorization of the full bench. Some lawmakers also want to discuss term limits for justices.

Even leftist lawmakers support to some of those ideas in the wake of a corruption scandal that ensnared the court.

Changes to the criminal code

Many elected lawmakers support Bolsonaro’s hard-line proposals for public security. They want to reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 years of age. Several also support chemical castration as a penalty for convicted rapists and pedophiles.

Some of those lawmakers also want structural shifts in the country’s penal system, drawing inspiration from the mass-incarceration model of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, if Bolsonaro wins and wants to spend funds toward that end.

“Far-right proposals for public security are focused more on addressing people’s fear than on solving the problem. These proposals center on punishment,” said Melina Risso, a research director at think-tank Instituto Igarape.

“Such measures are typical of those who neither understand the problem nor wish to resolve it. What is the point of increasing penalties when only 36% of homicides in the country are solved?”

Economic policies favor cutting spending

Many right-wing lawmakers want Brazil to halt public spending, but don’t say what will be cut — which is why leftist lawmakers tried to warn voters that welfare initiatives will be their main target, as they were during the Jair Bolsonaro presidency.

Some aligned with Bolsonaro propose lowering corporate taxes and reversing tax code changes set to take effect in January. Lula’s administration sees a new value-added tax (VAT) at the moment of every financial transaction as key to prevent fraud. Bolsonaro’s allies say it will suffocate companies — and they’re looking to repeal hundreds of administrative rules, decrees and bureaucratic constraints to lower costs for businesses.

Bolsonaro’s bloc also includes strong advocates of privatizing state-owned enterprises who will insist on helping Brazil’s powerful agribusinesses by providing more access to rural credit, protecting private land ownership rights and allowing more flexible employment contracts.

A few lawmakers also want more distance from China, Brazil’s main trading partner, to side instead with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Rolling back Amazon rainforest protections

Many elected lawmakers of Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party have campaigned on loosening environmental licensing requirements, weakening regulatory agencies and giving out amnesties for illegal land grabbing. They say they need to foster economic activity in the Amazon and beyond, so local populations don’t starve. Some of those initiatives depend on the president’s pen, and others can be authorized by Congress.

“Coupled with a denialist government under Flávio Bolsonaro, this could bring environmental chaos,” said Suely Araújo, a public policy coordinator at the nonprofit Climate Observatory.

About 70% of the members of Brazil’s lower house and 80% of the Senate are considered to be hostile to environmental and climate agendas, according to the observatory.

“This scenario points to four years of immense effort for those working on climate and environmental issues, as well as deep concern regarding both serious setbacks and the dire consequences all of this holds for the climate crisis,” Araújo said.

Following through on promises to counter progressive politics

Many right-wing lawmakers are poised to move beyond aggressive social media rhetoric and take concrete legislative action to counter progressive politics, as they promised.

Their efforts focus on dismantling measures supporting transgender populations, particularly by restricting gender-neutral bathroom access and slashing dedicated welfare programs and specialized healthcare services. These lawmakers also intend to secure leadership of congressional commissions to oppose gender-neutral language initiatives and promote a biological definition of womanhood.

New demarcations of Indigenous lands are expected to be frozen, under the argument that reserving territory hinders mining, agricultural expansion, and growth.

State-mandated quotas and identity-based affirmative action frameworks for university admissions and public service jobs will be challenged. Lawmakers plan to advance faith-based legislative agendas to restrict abortion access and reshape civil liberties protections.

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