USDA keeps Kazakhstan’s wheat export forecast at 9.5M tons

Photo: Government of Kazakhstan

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 12. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has maintained its forecast for Kazakhstan’s wheat exports at 9.5 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year in its October outlook.

This was reflected in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The USDA also kept its forecast for Kazakhstan’s wheat production unchanged at 15 million tons and its forecast for wheat imports at 1.5 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.

In its September outlook, the USDA lowered its forecast for Kazakhstan’s wheat exports to 9.5 million tons from 10 million tons projected in August. The agency also cut its wheat production forecast to 15 million tons from 16 million tons.

At the same time, the USDA raised its forecast for Kazakhstan’s wheat imports to 1.5 million tons from 700,000 tons in August.

Separately, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport reported that 10.8 million tons of grain were transported across the country’s railway network in January-September 2026, up 12% from 9.61 million tons in the same period last year. Export rail shipments totaled 8.4 million tons, an increase of 14%.

The largest volumes were shipped to Central Asian countries. In the first nine months of 2026, 5.5 million tons of grain were transported by rail to these countries, up 33% year-on-year. Uzbekistan accounted for 4.11 million tons, up 44%, and Tajikistan for 1.18 million tons, up 16%. A further 184,000 tons of grain were shipped to Kyrgyzstan and 30,000 tons to Turkmenistan.

Grain shipments also increased on other export routes. Rail deliveries to China reached 750,000 tons, up 54% from the same period last year. Shipments to Afghanistan, the fastest-growing route, totaled 762,000 tons, 4.3 times higher than in January-September 2025.