[Today’s Iran War post will be comparatively brief, very light at launch and more tweet-heavy than usual because I had competing obligations. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browsers then for a final version]
Even though the Iran and related Saudi-Ansar Allah conflicts are getting less press attention than other hot stories, the sentiment among the YouTubers and Twitterati on this beat is of rising anxiety. While pressure on tectonic plates does not necessarily produce an earthquake, here the intensification of forces suggests a violent, destructive shift.
First a Qatari delegation and then Pakistan’s Asim Munir went to Tehran to try to achieve a resolution or at least a narrowing of positions between the US and Iran. As we pointed out yesterday, experts like Trita Parsi have become even more pessimistic about a peaceful resolution. That was confirmed by Iran hardening its stance, as in further widening the gulf between the two sides.
Some comments from Twitter, first Arya Yadegaar:
@AryJeayBackup
Iran’s top security chief told the US, through Asim Munir, that Iran rejects nuclear talks & transfer of nuclear materials without its 7 conditions being met.
But most importantly: “From Iran’s perspective, lifting the blockade and releasing its frozen assets no longer constitute meaningful concessions to Tehran.”
There was an important outcome of the reportedly only 30 minute Qatar visit; it appears Munir stayed a bit longer. He said the closure of the border with Iran had been temporary and it was now reopened. That means Islamabad is no longer bowing to Bessent’s dictates.
Increasing indicators seem to point to Iran becoming even more cemented in their inflexibility to move from their negotiating positions.
Just today, we saw Ghalibaf himself indicating that Iran must see the U.S. agree to their 7 key conditions before any possible resolution to the conflict voild take place.
Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, also stated today that “not a single gram” of Iran’s highly enriched uranium will leave the country.
Even Iran’s more diplomatically-inclined President Pezeshkian has gone silent in recent weeks.
Iran has no INTENTION anymore of giving President Trump a negotiating off-ramp
President Trump is out of options, and the minimal lack of trust that did still exist between the United States and Iran, or perhaps the DESIRE for trust with Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf in particular, has now been proven wrong so many times by the United States that continuing to underplay their hand seems suicidal for any person in Iran to subscribe to.
Iran has TRIED playing nice throughout this war. They haven’t escalated across the Gulf. They haven’t struck the ship to ship transfer point. They haven’t moved against undersea cables.
Why? Because they don’t WANT to cross threshold that could make Trump resort to more insane options.
But at this point, many in Iran are seeing that only TRUE PAIN will be sufficient to bring about a resolution to this war. They tried the Ghalibaf/Pezeshkian approach, and now it’s time for the Rezaei/Vahidi approach.
Others pointed out that China has pretty much halted its ritual calls for negotiations. The peanut gallery speculates that as much as the Persian Gulf disruption imposes costs on them, they will benefit more in the long run via the damage done to the US in terms of military operations and credibility.
In the segment below, Cenk Uygur shows a clip of Israel Defense Minister Benjamin Katz describing how Israel intends to restart the Iran war and strike energy infrastructure and other critical assets. Trita Parsi concurs with Cenk’s reading. He adds that this has been Israel’s plan which was heretofore constrained by the US and that Netanyahu might go ahead before the Israel elections in eight days so as to be able to postpone them.
This segment also mentions the idea of using a MOAB to strike Pickaxe Mountain. Matthew Ho on Judge Napolitano debunks the idea that this would do anything to harm Iranian installations there. Starting at about 22:10, Ho describes that when this type of MOAB was used in Afghanistan against ISIS, it had no effect on tunnels but did terrorize the population.
Consistent with that reading, from Aljazeera’s landing page:
But even with these Israeli belligerent noises, the Iranians, while in a state of readiness, don’t see the US as yet ready to land their promised big blow. From Ehsan Taghadosi on Twitter:
Despite U.S. aerial movements in the region, the current military capability in Iran’s surrounding environment is not such that we should expect a very extensive attack, at least until before the midterm elections.
However, military assessments of an attack by the United States and Israel describe a short 3-day assault but with high intensity. The likelihood of an attack on energy facilities is high, and Iran has threatened a power plant for power plant and tower for tower retaliation.
This message has been conveyed to the Qataris, Omanis, and Pakistanis that Iran’s response will be like the 40-day war.
On the Saudi-Ansar Allah front, Ansar Allah is moving closer to control of Taiz:
⚡️BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis have Captured the Han Mountain from Pro-Saudi Forces overlooking the city of Taiz
All the higher ground is now under the control of Yemen’s Houthis
The Siege on Taiz is now becoming tighter, and Pro-Saudi Forces can’t receive Reinforcement https://t.co/XZX5GLzpov
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 20, 2026
And:
🇾🇪 In Yemen, the "Ansar Allah" (Houthi) movement is making significant gains in the Jabal Sabr area, the last mountainous region that forces from the Saudi-led coalition have used to defend the strategically important city of Taiz https://t.co/LB1lSEEtxq
— 𝕊𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕻𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤 (@SprinterPress) October 20, 2026
Blockade continues to choke Taiz as food supplies run short
Government forces have carried out strikes west of Taiz, saying they were targeting Houthi military vehicles.
The forces said they conducted sustained military operations, striking positions and military reinforcements belonging to the Houthis, and described the operations as extensive.
Aircraft belonging to government forces have been flying over the city almost continuously for several days, particularly as the Houthis continue to intensify their military pressure, mobilize forces, and attempt to breach the city’s defences through its western entrance.
Government forces have also reported that attacks and shelling are targeting residential neighbourhoods and civilians. There have been fatalities and injuries, as well as damage to civilian property caused by the bombardment.
Turning to the military operations in the city and their humanitarian consequences, the blockade continues to choke the city. There is no domestic cooking gas, and food supplies are running short, according to the government office responsible for monitoring the siege in Taiz province.
And yesterday at about 3:00 PM EDT, Aljazeera reported that the Saudis had made a score against Ansar Allah:
Some anti-imperialists are concerned that the Saudis might finally be getting some backing, or that that pretense may be used to stage a bigger operation against Iran:
All of these countries moving “defensive” forces into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to protect against Ansarallah air attacks—what happens when Trump-Netanyahu restart their criminal war on Iran. Will they all be at war with Iran too? Is that the unspoken purpose here?
— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) October 20, 2026
On the other hand, analysts also confirm a risk we flagged yesterday, of danger to Egyptian government of lending more than token support to the Saudis:
🇾🇪 Yemen’s al-Bukhaiti: "Any Egyptian involvement in the aggression against Yemen means Egypt would stand in one trench with the American, Israeli, and British enemy, against Yemen. And this will stain Egypt’s honorable history… and will create an internal breeding ground for takfiris."
"The Egyptian people are a red line… The Egyptian people are of us, and we are of them."
— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) October 20, 2026
