BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Thursday, 22 October, 10:39 a.m. ET · Source: Indexa Pesquisas for Broadcast (Agência Estado)
Key Facts
- What happened On Thursday 22 October, Indexa Pesquisas published a new Brazil runoff poll for Broadcast, the news service of Agência Estado.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.6% of valid votes and Lula 49.4%; raw totals are 45.2% to 44.1%.
- Margin of error 2.2 points either way, so the 1.2-point gap in valid votes is a technical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters interviewed by telephone on 20 and 21 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (22 October, 10:36 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 22 October, 10:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The survey ended on Wednesday 21 October, four days before the vote.
A new Indexa/Broadcast poll published on Thursday 22 October shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula by 50.6% to 49.4% of valid votes. The gap is a technical tie, three days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
34 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate. This is one of several Brazil election polls published this week, and its small gap fits the same tight picture.
What the Indexa Runoff Poll Found
Indexa Pesquisas interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone on 20 and 21 October, Transmissão Política reported. Agência Estado, the news agency of Grupo Estado, publisher of the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, commissioned the survey, which has a 2.2-point margin of error and electoral court registration BR-02348/2026.
Among all respondents, Flávio Bolsonaro has 45.2% and Lula has 44.1%, Viva reported. Once blank, null and undecided answers are set aside, the split becomes 50.6% to 49.4%.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazil’s electoral court, known as the TSE, counts only valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match the official result, while the raw total counts every person interviewed.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2.2-point margin on each number, this poll cannot say who is truly ahead.
How the Race Moved in a Week
The previous Indexa/Broadcast survey, published on 15 October, had Flávio at 44% and Lula at 42% in raw totals and 51% to 49% in valid votes, Midiamax reported. The raw gap has narrowed from 2 points to 1.1, and the valid-vote gap to 1.2.
Other pollsters have shown similarly narrow margins this week, as our poll tracker lists. A gap this small can flip with a small change in who turns out to vote.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. The Brazil runoff poll tracker page lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A gap inside the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a about 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula about 22% (22 October, 10:36 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$191.6 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists runoff contracts.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.2% · Lula 21.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 22 October, 10:40 am ET (15:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The survey does not say how many of the undecided voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
Indexa has not published a further survey after the 20 and 21 October interviews. Later polls and events in the final days could change the picture.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Indexa?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50.6% of valid votes against 49.4% for Lula, published on Thursday 22 October. Raw totals are 45.2% to 44.1%.
What is a technical tie in a poll?
It means the gap between candidates is within the margin of error, here 2.2 percentage points. The survey cannot say who is truly ahead.
What is the margin of error of the Indexa poll?
It is 2.2 points either way at a 95% confidence level. The poll interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone on 20 and 21 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Who is Indexa?
Indexa Pesquisas is a Brazilian polling firm. Its latest survey was commissioned by Agência Estado for the Broadcast news service.
Sources: Transmissão Política, 22 October 2026; Viva, 22 October 2026; Midiamax, 15 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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