Bitcoin: ETFs Become the Main Buyers, According to Coinbase

The cryptocurrency market is going through a challenging period, between persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties about U.S. rates. In its weekly analysis, Coinbase highlights a significant shift in demand sources, as traditional buyers lose influence. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds now play a central role in supporting bitcoin. However, several indicators show that this demand remains fragile and that the price could retest lower levels.

Bitcoin ETFs now carry the bulk of the demand

According to Colin Basco, senior quantitative strategist at Coinbase, institutional demand is undergoing a transition phase. In the second half of 2026, Bitcoin Treasury purchases have lost momentum. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds are therefore taking a more significant role in supporting the market. This development strengthens their influence on price movements, while other sources of demand struggle to regain momentum.

However, ETFs do not guarantee a continuous rise in bitcoin. On October 23, the funds recorded 635 million dollars in net outflows, among the largest withdrawal days of the second half. This movement coincided with a resurgence of risk aversion and fears of renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. Investors thus reduced their exposure, despite the central role of funds in market demand.

At the same time, the overall liquidity of cryptocurrencies shows signs of weakness. The stablecoin supply, which notably allows investors to have capital to buy digital assets, has decreased by nearly 13 billion dollars since its May peak. The Coinbase premium also remained negative in October, according to Basco’s analysis. These indicators suggest that American buyers, outside of ETFs, have not yet resumed large-scale purchases.

This situation limits the market’s ability to absorb sales and sustainably support prices. The apparent negative demand also confirms the weakness of buying pressure. In this context, American funds must compensate for some of the lack of participation from other investors. However, recent outflows show that their support can vary quickly when economic conditions worsen.

Bitcoin: inflation and the Fed weaken the 80,000 dollar threshold

The macroeconomic context is another risk factor for bitcoin. Coinbase highlights persistent inflation and mentions an 80% probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in December. This prospect could weigh on risky assets, as investors also watch the central bank’s next decision. Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran add further uncertainty to this situation.

For Colin Basco, the zone between 80,000 and 82,000 dollars represents a first important support level. It corresponds to the convergence of the 50-day moving average and the cost basis of Bitcoin ETFs. This combination could help the price remain within this range despite the current pressures. However, a break of this zone would change the short-term configuration and expose the market to a more marked downturn.

Coinbase thus places the next support between 73,000 and 75,000 dollars. This scenario depends notably on the evolution of economic conditions and buyers’ ability to defend current levels. If fund outflows continue and liquidity remains low, the market could lack support to contain sales. Conversely, an improvement in demand and a calming of risks could help stabilize prices.

Caution therefore remains warranted around the 80,000 dollars threshold. ETF flows, liquidity data, and Fed decisions are among the main indicators to watch. None of these elements alone can confirm a sustainable direction. Their joint evolution will, however, provide indications about the market’s ability to preserve its support levels.

Options reveal increased demand for downside protection

Institutional investors’ positioning provides additional insight into current risks. Coinbase observes a strong increase in the 25-delta skew, an indicator that notably measures the price difference between certain call and put options. For one-day and one-week maturities, this indicator rose from 5% to 15%. This evolution reflects a greater demand for protection against a price decline.

Investors notably use put options to hedge their positions against a possible decline. In this context, the levels of 75,000 and 73,000 dollars concentrate part of the attention on the options market. This hedging demand reflects short-term concerns linked to U.S. monetary policy and international tensions. However, it does not mean that the market will necessarily reach these levels.

Furthermore, Coinbase notes a concentration of over 2.1 million BTC in an area between 87,500 and 91,700 dollars. This concentration could complicate a sustained recovery if the price were to rise into this range. Investors could then face a significant resistance zone, which would limit short-term progress. The market thus has to deal with support levels near 80,000 dollars and a resistance zone located significantly higher.

Nevertheless, three-month data introduce a nuance. The 25-delta skew only increased from 6% to 10% over this period, which suggests that institutional concerns have not always translated into lasting fear. Market participants may have considered macroeconomic and geopolitical risks as temporary. The recent short-term increase of the indicator however shows that their need for protection has strengthened ahead of upcoming economic events.

In the short term, bitcoin’s evolution will depend not only on ETFs‘ ability to maintain their purchases but also on the potential return of retail investors. Defending the 80,000 to 82,000 dollar zone will be an important benchmark, while a break could open the way to 73,000 to 75,000 dollars. Upcoming fund flows, the Fed’s decision, and geopolitical tensions will help better gauge the strength of demand and market direction.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.