At long last, the 2026-27 NBA season is nearly upon us, and with so much anticipation surrounding the official tip-off, awards predictions are hot in the search engine optimization world.
Some categories are easy to narrow down. Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Doncic will all have something to say about the Most Valuable Player award. Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren will swat their way into Defensive Player of the Year consideration.
But others are far more wide-open. Like, you guessed it, the Sixth Man of the Year award. To be considered for this honor, you not only have to be one of the best players coming off the bench in the league, but you also need the cards to fall in a way where you don’t end up having to start so many games that you are omitted from contention.
Projecting this race can be a tall task. But never fear, there is a way to narrow down the playing field, so long as we follow the lead of all great philosophers, and let history be our guide.
Who Usually Wins Sixth Man of the Year?
From looking at past winners, you realize that there are two key ingredients to a 6MOY year candidacy. First, you need to score a lot of points. And second, you need to play on a team that wins a lot of games.
To put some color on these two elements, since 2001-02, every player who has taken home the award has eclipsed the 13 points per game mark, even last season’s winner (Keldon Johnson, 13.2 PPG). And of those 25 winners, 20 of them (80%) played on a team that ended the season with a top four record in their respective conference.
With these parameters in place, let’s look at a couple of names that could fall under this description.
[Sidebar:The exceptions to this second point are Lou Williams (twice), Jason Terry (2008-09), Mike Miller (2005-06), and Antawn Jamison (2003-04), who all still played on teams that made the playoffs.]
Ajay Mitchell (+490, 16.9%)
We’re going to do this in order of their odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. As of right now, Ajay Mitchell is the leader in the clubhouse, which makes sense since he plays for one of the best teams in the Western Conference (the Oklahoma City Thunder) and averaged 13.6 PPG last year. For what my money’s worth, he was the best bench player in the league last year, but his candidacy took a hit because he missed 25 games. If he can stay healthy this year, he’s got as good of a chance as anyone. But if you want better odds for a Thunder player, Jared McCain (+3000) could be a nice pick if injuries force Mitchell to start too many games.
Dylan Harper (+600, 14.3%)
Dylan Harper should be a starter. In his inaugural postseason run (23 games), Harper averaged 14.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 1.0 SPG on 61.1% true shooting. But the politics of De’Aaron Fox’s reputation and contract make that switch easier said than done. So, the least the San Antonio Spurs can do is reward Harper for his sacrifice by helping him follow in the footsteps of the franchise’s most famous Southpaw: Manu Ginobili.
Ayo Dosunmu (+1800, 5.3%)
After an offseason makeover, the fully-realized version of the Minnesota Timberwolves have a chance to be the third-best team in the Western Conference behind the Thunder and Spurs. Despite all the changes they made, they decided to keep Ayo Dosunmu, who thrived after coming to the team in a midseason trade. In 24 games (15 coming off the bench), Dosunmu averaged 14.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 1 SPG on 61.9% true shooting. The only worries with Dosunmu are whether Jonathan Kuminga will be good enough to keep him on the bench and the Timberwolves don’t take too long to find their footing in a loaded West.
Sam Merrill (+5000, 2%)
Even if Peyton Watson continues his improved shooting from last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers new starting five of him, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley is going to be sorely lacking in that department. This means that Sam Merrill, who will start the season coming off the bench, is going to have a big part to play in helping to balance their lineups. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has always valued Merrill’s ability to space the floor (he shot 42.1% from three last season) while also connecting the dots of their offense, so expect the seventh-year guard to factor heavily into the rotation. Plus, in the past, we’ve seen white-hot marksmen make a serious bid for this award in the past – just look at Malik Beasley, who finished as the runner-up just two seasons ago.
Sandro Mamukelashvili (+7500, 1.3%)
On paper, it seems like Collin Sexton will be the team’s sixth man. However, on a recent episode of the Dunc’d On Podcast, Lakers insider Jovan Buha compared Sandro Mamukelashvili’s projected role on the team with that of the one Naz Reid played in his time with the Timberwolves (a tenure that included a 2023-24 6MOY award). I just can’t quit that possibility. Mamukelashvili is probably one of the team’s five best players, but the lack of lateral quickness from Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic will likely forbid him from joining the opening group. And since the team doesn’t have a viable backup big, this leaves Mamukelashvili to act as both the team’s second power forward and center. With the Lakers finally fielding an appropriate team around Doncic, Mamukelashvili could emerge as a surprise contender for this award.
Miles McBride (+7500, 1.3%)
The New York Knicks are trying to become the first back-to-back champion since 2018. To do this, they need to balance winning guys with also making sure their top five guys (Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns) don’t get run into the ground. But how to do this? Rely on your depth. And with Mitchell Robinson now gone, their most productive bench player is Miles “Deuce” McBride. Injuries limited him to just 41 regular season games, but when he did play, he was averaging 12 PPG. If McBride can boost that number up a bit and the Knicks can continue their dominance of the Eastern Conference, he has the exact type of microwave, bucket-getter profile that we’ve seen win this award so many times in the past (Jamal Crawford, Williams, Terry, etc.).
Some Guys You Should Stay Away From
Right now, we’re targeting players who will be on teams that project to be at the top of their conference. So, naturally, we should avoid those guys whose teams we don’t believe in.
Looking at the current top ten in odds, there are four guys who come to mind. The Portland Trail Blazers had to participate in the play-in tournament last year, and their main additions this offseason are two players (Damian Lillard and Ja Morant) who don’t really make sense for this roster. Both of those guys are perceived candidates for this award, but even if one of them sucks it up and comes off the bench, I doubt Portland will be good enough for them to get serious consideration. The Denver Nuggets were the third-best regular season team in the Western Conference, but they are another year older and shed some key depth pieces (Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr.) this summer. Nikola Jokic is a wins machine, but with the Timberwolves, Lakers, and Utah Jazz all taking steps forward, regression could be in their future. Beware of DeMar DeRozan. Lastly, I’m personally fading the Philadelphia 76ers (the superteam model is antiquated), so I think Anfernee Simons is getting too much love from the books.