Support for the Rebuilding Korea Party has climbed into the 9% range for the first time since the Lee Jae-myung administration took office, leaving it within reach of double digits. Analysts attribute the gain to the party's sharply drawn reform positions on issues including the impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Jo Hee-de and the easing of working-hour rules, which have resonated with traditional progressive voters. The Democratic Party, which has focused on expanding its appeal to centrists, has seen no clear rebound in support and now faces growing concern that its core base is slipping away. The widening gap between the two parties over the chief justice's impeachment has added to the political burden on the Democratic Party leadership.
According to a poll of 1,033 adults nationwide conducted on the 19th and 20th by Media Tomato for News Tomato and released on the 23rd, support for the Rebuilding Korea Party stood at 9.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from two weeks earlier. It was the first time the party reached the 9% range since the Lee administration took office. Over the same period, the Democratic Party fell 0.8 percentage point to 36.2% and the People Power Party slipped 0.4 percentage point to 37.2%, leaving the two in a statistical tie. Among self-identified progressives, support for the Rebuilding Korea Party jumped 7.0 percentage points from the previous survey to 17.8%.
The party's advance is being read as a sign that traditional progressive voters disappointed by the Democratic Party's recent conduct are turning elsewhere. Gyeonggi Province Governor Choo Mi-ae and Democratic Party lawmaker Boo Seung-chan both drew criticism for misstatements about firefighting budgets, and the controversy over excessive protocol surrounding Democratic Party leader Kim Min-seok, along with factional infighting, has deepened frustration among the party's supporters. Kim Joon-hyung, the Rebuilding Korea Party's floor leader, said on the radio a day earlier that the rise in support "appears to reflect a windfall from the Democratic Party's troubles."
The party's willingness to stake out positions more clearly than the Democratic Party on judicial reform, labor rights and other priorities of the broader governing bloc is also cited as a factor. The impeachment of the chief justice is the clearest example. The Rebuilding Korea Party has drafted its own impeachment motion, delivered it to the Democratic Party and called for a joint push, raising the pressure. Shin Jang-sik, the party's leader, said at a supreme council meeting a day earlier that "alongside voices expressing concern about impeaching the chief justice, there is also cynicism and ridicule," adding that such attitudes stem "not from law or regulation but from outdated political calculation." Floor leader Kim also urged the Democratic Party to act, saying a parliamentary investigation "must not become a pretext for delaying impeachment."
The Democratic Party, by contrast, is putting greater weight on establishing the facts through a parliamentary investigation than on moving immediately to impeach. The approach is seen as reflecting concerns that an impeachment motion could be rejected by the Constitutional Court even if it clears the National Assembly, and that centrist voters could react badly. Opinion within the party is nonetheless divided. While the leadership maintains a cautious stance, hard-liners within the party have called for a swift push. Lawmaker Jung Chung-rae recently pressed the leadership, saying the party has "no reason to hesitate."
The rebound is also notable because it comes after questions had been raised about the party's political survival. Support had fallen to the 1% to 2% range after Cho Kuk, head of the party's reform policy institute, lost the June 3 by-election in Pyeongtaek B district, leaving the party struggling for visibility. The party is now seen as having found an opening by staking out reform issues first. While the Democratic Party has pushed a "structural majority" argument and concentrated on broadening its centrist appeal, the Rebuilding Korea Party has courted traditional progressive voters with a differentiated line and regained a measure of standing. Party spokesperson Lim Myung-hee told reporters a day earlier that the rise in support was "a vote of confidence in a party that speaks out for clearer reform and for reforms that improve people's lives."
For the Democratic Party, the rival's gains are difficult to ignore. Leader Kim has put his weight behind the centrist strategy, but it has not translated into a clear rise in support, raising the prospect that even longtime supporters could waver. Moving quickly on impeachment risks a backlash from centrists, while holding to a cautious line risks ceding leadership on reform to a rival running on clarity. One political observer said the Democratic Party "is concentrating on centrist expansion while losing the very identity that made it the Democratic Party," adding that "its appeal is fading even among its existing supporters."
The survey was conducted by automated response system on mobile phones, with a response rate of 2.2% and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.