Majority of Albertans are ready to move on from the Oct. 19 referendum: poll

When it comes to the Oct. 19 referendum, most Albertans are ready to move on from the vote and want the government to put the issue to bed.

Results from a new survey by Abacus Data show 67 per cent of respondents said after the Oct. 19 referendum, they want the government to move on and focus on issues such as affordability, health care and job security. While 22 per cent want the government to continue to press for greater provincial autonomy.

But even if the majority of Albertans vote in favour of Option 1 — for Alberta to remain in Canada, only 14 per cent believe the issue would be settled. Of the respondents, 26 per cent believe the issue of separation would fade and eventually return, and 23 per cent expect another referendum push in the next few years.

About 24 per cent believe the independence movement would continue to grow regardless of the outcome of the Oct. 19 vote.

The majority of Albertans — about 61 per cent —  believe they’ll be asked to vote again on the topic sometime in the future.

Robson Fletcher, a data and storytelling strategist with Abacus Data, said most Albertans trust Elections Alberta to count the ballots fairly, but Albertans do not trust each other to respect the results of the referendum.

“That sets the stage, I think, for some potential challenges once all the ballots are counted after Monday’s vote,” Fletcher said.

“We haven’t seen big swings one way or another, and I think that’s because people are pretty entrenched in their positions, and when you have people so entrenched on a topic like this, where it’s hard to bridge the divide, I think it’s easy for people to have the sense that this issue isn’t going to go away.”

According to the poll, 71 per cent of remain supporters and separation supporters trust the count will be fair, however, 46 per cent on each side distrust that both sides will respect the outcome.

Very few Albertans expect the province’s relationship with Ottawa will reset, with 42 per cent expecting no change and 25 per cent believing it will worsen.

In the aftermath of the referendum, 68 per cent believe in the coming year the province will push for more provincial powers such as its own pension plan or police force, which is currently in the works.

About 60 per cent believe immigrants will avoid Alberta due to potential restrictions on social services and the majority believe tensions will increase with other provinces and that businesses will either delay or cancel investment due to uncertainty.

A separate survey conducted by Abacus Data for the Alberta Federation of Labour, released on Thursday, showed that 56 per cent of Albertans believe the province should not be holding a referendum compared to the 30 per cent who said it should.

AFL president GIl McGowan said in a press release that the results confirm what he’s heard from workers across the province saying that no one asked for the referendum.

“The fact that it’s happening, at all, shows that the Smith government is disconnected from the majority of Albertans who they are supposed to represent,” McGowan said.

Over 60 per cent of respondents were concerned about foreign interference in the referendum with concerns shared by majorities of both UCP and NDP supporters. Most are concerned about the U.S. government and “dark money” groups funded by American billionaires. About half of Albertans believe it’s likely the U.S. will try to make good on its threat to turn Alberta into the 51st state following the referendum vote.

Both surveys were conducted from Oct. 7 to 13.