Missouri football’s last game before its idle week left a bitter taste.
A 31-3 road loss at the hands of Ole Miss on Oct. 17 put a dent in what had been an otherwise encouraging start to the season. But, there’s time yet to turn it around.
“We lost, but all's not lost,” head coach Eli Drinkwitz said after MU’s loss at Ole Miss. “We're 5-2 and got a chance to get healthy and get better and then go play the next opponent. And that's really got to be our mindset.”
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The Tigers are going through their idle week and will sit the Oct. 24 slate of games out — a much-needed rest for a team that looked fatigued in its blowout in Oxford. Next up for MU is another road trip to Arkansas for an Oct. 31 game in Fayetteville.
Does Mizzou (5-2, 2-2 SEC) recover and go on a run? What’s the ceiling, and what’s the floor?
Here is what we see as the best- and worst-case remaining scenarios for MU’s 2026 regular season:
Best-case remaining scenario for Missouri football in 2026
The playoff isn’t off the table for Mizzou in 2026, but it’s going to either require a special run or some help from teams around the country.
You could absolutely paint a picture where Missouri wins all of its remaining home games (Texas on Nov. 7, Kentucky on Nov. 21, Oklahoma on Nov. 28) and beats Arkansas on the road. That gets the Tigers to nine wins.
Running the table is an altogether different type of challenge, with Georgia on the road still on the schedule. That’s unrealistic, making 10 wins unrealistic.
But a 9-3 record could still make it in. Because of the leap to a nine-game conference schedule in the SEC, the number of teams who will finish the regular season with double-digit victories is going to be lower than usual.
Six teams had 10 regular-season wins last year. There is currently one team — Georgia — that has a predicted win total of 10.5 wins this year in the betting markets.
That probably means fewer SEC teams are getting into the playoff. Even if that number drops from five playoff teams last year to, let’s say, three teams in 2026, there’s a chance one of those three representatives is a 9-3 squad.
If Mizzou can get to that number, which is still a big ask, the Tigers would need help. Missouri would need Mississippi State to rebound and finish the year strong, so that looks like a quality loss. The Tigers would be better off if Florida and Texas A&M go on good runs so that those wins look even better.
Outside of the conference, the Tigers need the ACC and (especially) the Big 12 to cannibalize themselves and Notre Dame to miss out on a top-12 CFP ranking, which guarantees the Irish a playoff spot.
That’s a lot to fall in MU’s favor, but getting to 9-3 at least would give Mizzou a fighting chance at a premier postseason spot.
Worst-case remaining scenario for Missouri football
Mizzou’s remaining over/under is 7.5 wins in the betting markets. That seems like a fair number and baseline for the remainder of the regular season.
The Tigers have been excellent on their home turf under Eli Drinkwitz in recent years, and they have three remaining home games. Missouri is 23-3 on Faurot Field since the beginning of the 2023 season. It would be shocking if it didn’t pick up at least one more win at Memorial Stadium — even against Texas and Oklahoma teams with excellent defenses and a Kentucky outfit that has outperformed expectations.
Mizzou is 9-1 in its past 10 games against Arkansas, and the Razorbacks — despite just ending a 14-game SEC losing streak with a win at Vanderbilt — have been disappointing in Year 1 under new coach Ryan Silverfield. A loss Oct. 31 in Fayetteville would be an outright disaster.
Barring unmanageable injuries, Missouri should see 7-5 as its floor for the remainder of this season. The Tigers have shown more than enough — despite a couple disappointing days in the state of Mississippi — to comfortably cross the bowl-eligible barrier coming out of their break and compete with the SEC’s middle class.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: What are the best, worst-case remaining scenarios for Missouri football?