Vietnam could face super typhoon like Yagi every 7 years

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has released the updated 2025 Climate Change Scenarios and integrated the document into the National Climate Change Database.

The scenarios provide a scientific basis for management, policymaking, planning, risk management and proactive adaptation to climate change.

Under the high-emissions scenario, the number of hot days could increase by more than 50 days by the end of the 21st century, while the number of days with extreme heat could rise by around 20 days.

Tthe number of days with severe cold and damaging cold in northern Vietnam and the north-central region is projected to fall sharply.

Maximum one-day and five-consecutive-day rainfall could increase by around 30–40% in the northern and southern regions. The number of days with heavy rainfall is also projected to rise significantly, particularly in the south.

In some areas of northern Vietnam, the Central Highlands and the south, the number of days with rainfall exceeding 100mm could increase by 80-100% under the high-emissions scenario.

These changes point to a growing risk of extreme rainfall, highlighting the need to strengthen disaster prevention and response capacity and improve climate change adaptation.

For the first time, the 2025 scenarios provide information on extreme climate events under global warming thresholds of 1.5, two, three and four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to the scenarios, as global temperatures rise, super typhoons comparable in intensity to Typhoon Yagi are likely to occur more frequently.

Yagi hit Vietnam's northern coastline in Quang Ninh Province and Hai Phong City in September 2024, with sustained winds of up to 166 kph. It ended up killing 318 people and causing economic loss estimated at US$3.3 billion.

A man watches as a tree is uprooted and crushes his car in Hanoi following Typhoon Yagi's impacts, Sept. 8, 2024. Photo by VnExpress/Thanh Nga

If global average temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius, Vietnam could experience such a super typhoon once every 13 years on average.

The frequency would increase to once every nine years under the three-degree warming scenario and once every seven years if temperatures rise by four degrees.

Under the four-degree warming scenario, northern Vietnam could be affected by a super typhoon once every 13 years on average, while the corresponding frequency in the central region is once every 16 years.

In the south, such storms are projected to be much less frequent, occurring approximately once every 133 years.

The 2025 climate change scenarios also include an in-depth assessment of urban areas, focusing on Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

The assessment considers the combined effects of global warming and urbanization, highlighting trends in rising temperatures, more frequent hot weather, the urban heat island effect and extreme rainfall.

The scenarios indicate that climate change will affect a range of climate-sensitive sectors, including public health, rice production and infrastructure.

In addition to intensifying extreme weather events, climate change is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as the planet warms.

By 2100, the average sea-level rise is projected to reach around 46.1 cm under the low-emissions scenario and as much as 63.7cm under the high-emissions scenario.

Assoc. Prof. Pham Thi Thanh Nga emphasized that climate change scenarios should not be confused with weather forecasts or climate predictions.

Rather, they are scientifically grounded hypothetical scenarios that illustrate possible future climate trends based on the relationships between socio-economic activities, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and sea-level rise.

She said effective use of the scenarios requires consideration of the uncertainties involved and the selection of scenarios appropriate to the intended purpose.