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Ten months ago, Duke beat Virginia in one of the most unexpected championship games in the modern era of college football.
The Blue Devils were just 7-5 overall before they lifted the trophy, but they got into the finale thanks to a 6-2 record in the ACC and a whole bunch of tiebreakers.
It would be an even bigger shock if either of these teams made it back to the title game in December.
Duke (4-3, 1-2) started the season with an impressive win over Illinois, but it has since fallen flat, losing to UNC and Georgia Tech by one possession.
Virginia’s (4-2, 2-2) season has followed a similar pattern.
The Cavs dominated NC State in their opener, but they’ve been a picture of inconsistency since then. A 38-7 loss to Florida State looks especially ugly, given what we now know about the Seminoles.
Virginia vs. Duke odds, prediction
Virginia’s stunning 2025 campaign was powered by quarterback Chandler Morris, so it’s not a huge surprise that the Cavaliers have struggled to find consistency on offense without Morris.
Beau Pribula was a sensible target to replace Morris, but things just haven’t panned out for the former Missouri Tiger.
Pribula can do damage when he’s able to get outside the pocket and threaten you with his feet, but he’s taken some serious licks, which has slowed down that part of his game.
The result has been three ugly games in a row for Pribula and the Virginia offense.
The good news for the Cavs is that they aren’t the only team on the field getting inconsistent play from their quarterback.
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Walker Eget, who transferred to Duke from San Jose State to replace Darian Mensah, has had some high points, but his overall body of work leaves plenty to be desired.
The Blue Devils are averaging just 6.7 yards per pass (96th overall) this season.
Both of these defenses grade out as solid, not spectacular, but that should be enough against a pair of offenses that are not inspiring much confidence at the moment.
The Play: Under 47.5 points (-115, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.