El Nino could persist into early 2027, with sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remaining exceptionally high, according to the latest forecast from Columbia University’s International Research Institute (IRI).
In its El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast published yesterday (19 October), the IRI reported that the latest weekly Nino 3.4 index reading had reached +3.3°C, measuring sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which can influence atmospheric circulation, shifting temperature and rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.
The latest model outlook suggests that the event could remain strong into early 2027, although its effects will vary by region and season.
For South Asia, El Nino can influence seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns. Its potential effects on Bangladesh include changes in rainfall distribution, hotter conditions and increased pressure on irrigation and agricultural activities. However, the precise impact will depend on other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
El Nino does not automatically mean that a particular country will experience drought, flooding or a weaker monsoon.
Regional climate patterns and other weather systems also play important roles in determining local conditions.
Scientists monitor the Nino 3.4 index alongside atmospheric indicators and climate models to assess the development and likely duration of El Niño events.
The IRI’s latest outlook provides an indication of the climate phenomenon’s potential trajectory into early 2027, while further observations and updated forecasts will help clarify its strength and possible effects in the coming months.