President Trump and his party are facing fresh warning signs ahead of the midterms as 19 more House races shift toward Democrats, with six competitive seats moving out of toss-up territory and into Democratic column.
The Cook Political Report's latest ratings update, released October 23, suggests Republicans face an increasingly difficult battle to retain control of the House, with Democrats now favored in the 218 seats needed to win a majority.
Veteran campaign handicapper Charlie Cook, who founded his report in 1984, has burnished a reputation for forecasting Washington power swings every two years.
The report now rates 220 seats as 'Solid', 'Likely' or 'Lean Democrat,' compared with 198 favored for Republicans.
Another 17 races remain classified as toss-ups.
Cook projects Democrats will gain between 12 and 22 seats, potentially giving them a substantially larger majority than the narrow margins they have held in recent Congresses.
According to Cook, six districts have moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, four of which are currently held by Republican incumbents.
Those changes include North Carolina’s 11th District, an open seat previously held by Republican Chuck Edwards, Virginia’s 2nd District, where Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans faces Democrat Elaine Luria, and Wisconsin’s 3rd District, where Republican Derrick Van Orden faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke.
The ratings also moved Arizona's 6th District, represented by Republican Juan Ciscomani, Colorado's 8th District, held by Republican Gabe Evans, and Texas' 34th District, represented by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, toward Democrats.
According to Cook, six districts have moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. That includes North Carolina's 11th District's Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards
Republicans are scaling back spending in several House races where the party's chances of holding the seats have come under pressure, shifting money toward other contests they see as more competitive
Virginia's 2nd District's Republican Jen Kiggans is one of the incumbent Red districts now considered Lean Democrat
Four of the six districts are held by Republicans, giving Democrats additional potential pickup opportunities.
Two additional open seats have moved from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss Up,' further expanding the number of competitive contests.
Those races are in Kentucky's 6th District and Texas' 35th District.
California's 13th District and Texas' 28th District moved from 'Lean Democrat' to 'Likely Democrat,' while California's 21st District moved from 'Likely Democrat' to 'Solid Democrat.'
Meanwhile, six Republican-leaning districts were downgraded from 'Likely Republican' to 'Lean Republican,' including seats in Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Texas.
North Carolina's 3rd and 13th Districts also moved from ‘Solid Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican,’ reflecting growing uncertainty about the GOP's ability to hold seats once considered safe.
Republicans are also scaling back spending in several House races where the party's chances of holding the seats have come under pressure, shifting money toward other contests they see as more competitive.
According to the Associated Press, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC supporting House Republicans, canceled planned advertising in four districts while increasing its investment in 16 others.
The pullback included Iowa's 1st District, where Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, and New Jersey's 7th District, where Republican Representative Tom Kean is running against Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
The four races where the group withdrew spending had accounted for $13.3 million in its advertising investment through October 13.
The shift suggests Republicans are increasingly focused on defending vulnerable incumbents rather than trying to expand their majority.
A separate pro-Trump super PAC, Safety and Affordability, also pulled nearly $1 million in advertising from Nevada's 3rd District, where Republican Marty O'Donnell is challenging Democratic Representative Susie Lee.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer has acknowledged that Republicans face tough decisions about where to deploy their resources, including walking away from races they do not think they can win.
But Democrats are looking to capitalize on the changing map.
Their House campaign committee launched a $17 million fundraising drive to pay for advertising in additional Republican-held districts, arguing that more seats could now be competitive.
The latest assessment follows another round of ratings changes earlier in October, when 18 House races moved in Democrats' direction.
Democrats need to flip only a handful of Republican-held seats to take control of the chamber, making the 17 remaining toss-ups particularly important.