The Carolina Panthers are coming off two straight wins (sandwiching a needed bye week) to surge into first place in the NFC South. They were favored last time out on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, but only after some late injury updates for Philly.
This week, they're headed back home to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an early-season rivalry bout. While the Buccaneers are struggling at the bottom of the division, these matchups are always tough and important.
So, what do the odds tell us this week?
Panthers favored against Buccaneers for now
The Panthers open as 3.5-point favorites at home (FanDuel) over the Buccaneers. One could argue that the spread is a little too small given the trajectory of the two franchises and the most recent outings for both.
Regardless, the Panthers are favored at home. They're -105 to cover the spread, while the Buccaneers are -115 to cover. That's also a little bit interesting. The Panthers have won three contests by an average of 16 points.
The Panthers are -180 on the moneyline, so they are expected to win outright. The Buccaneers are +152 to win. The over/under is set at 44.5, and the over and under are both currently set at -110.
So, based on that, the oddsmakers expect the Panthers to win a tight contest, 24-21. In other words, the Panthers are not expected to blow out a 1-5 team at home.
Now, there is a huge caveat to these odds and what they're telling us. Right now, it is totally up in the air as to which QB the Panthers will see. Jalon Daniels has been filling in for Baker Mayfield, who has been nursing a thumb injury on his throwing hand.
He's supposed to return to practice this week, and the Buccaneers may be able to start him. His moronic, stubborn need for a revenge narrative against the Panthers will probably push him to try to play at all costs.
That would change thing. Mayfield struggled before getting hurt and will be coming back from a difficult injury on his throwing hand, which will limit him. Still, he is better than Daniels at this point, and that would shift the odds.
What's telling about the current odds is that the Panthers aren't favored by more. They are clearly the best team in the NFC South. They're at home. The Buccaneers are 1-5, and right now, Daniels is in line to start again. The Panthers are getting healthier, and they're coming off two pretty substantial wins.
It's the NFL, and any team can win any game, but the odds aren't meant to reflect that. It seems Carolina is still being wildly underestimated and perhaps a little disrespected.
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