Is Iran ready for another major US attack after midterm elections?

The prospect of another major US attack is shaping calculations in Tehran, where officials are preparing for renewed strikes. 

According to US media reports, the US and Israel have been examining new options for strikes against Iran.

The approaching US midterm elections on November 3, and Israel's election next week, have injected a political factor into how both countries are approaching the conflict they launched in late February.

Polls show high energy prices brought on by the Iran war are hurting Trump's Republicans. On October 8, Trump posted on social media that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran. The US last launched strikes on Iran in early September. 

However, after the elections are over, Trump may feel less politically constrained on launching attacks on Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, has campaigned on a platform of regime change in Tehran.

Report says plans in place for 'short' US-Israeli operation

On Wednesday, the New York Times, citing senior US officials, reported that the US and Israel have "developed specific plans" for a "short but intensive operation" in Iran that would include targets like Iran's nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and arsenal of missiles and drones.

One official told the newspaper the goal would be to force Iran into making "diplomatic concessions" by further weakening its economy, as negotiations to end the conflict have gone nowhere. The US has also maintained a blockade of Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz that has sapped Tehran's oil revenues.

The Times report follows others in recent weeks, including Axios in early October, which reported that the Pentagon has instructed US Central Command "to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran."

There are currently two US aircraft carrier strike groups in the Arabian Sea, with a third expected to arrive by late November.

On October 15, Trump told the right-wing broadcaster Newsmax that he was considering Pickaxe Mountain near the Natanz nuclear complex, where US officials believe Iran may have moved sensitive nuclear-related material underground.

A day later CNN reported Trump was considering using a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB, on Iranian targets. As the MOAB creates a massive blast wave above ground, its effectiveness in targeting underground facilities like Pickaxe would be limited.

Iran says it has learned from earlier attacks 

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have said they are prepared for another US attack, with a broad response that would include regional US bases and energy facilities in the Gulf.

Ali Asghar Shafieian, a media adviser to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, told DW that although the US retains a significant technological and military advantage, Tehran's strategy is based on preserving the regime's hold on the country, rather than matching US strength.

"The United States has the upper hand in military power and technology, but Iran's strength is in how it deals with a crisis," Shafieian said. 

He pointed to the rapid replacement of senior officials killed in previous attacks as an example of how Tehran has tried to make its political structure more resilient. Iran has also been rebuilding its missile and drone capabilities that were hit during the massive wave of strikes seen during the first weeks of the war.

Reuters news agency, citing Iranian officials, reported this week that Iran is "preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," adding that Tehran was prolonging negotiations to try and weaken Trump ahead of the midterms.

Tehran has told regional governments that US military bases and critical infrastructure could become targets if neighboring countries assist another US or Israeli operation. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that participation or cooperation by regional states would face what he called a "decisive and proportionate response."

"Iran is prepared to give diplomacy another chance if we see strong evidence of a sincere desire by US to build trust and reach a just solution. But if the US "chooses war over diplomacy, it'll certainly result in an even greater strategic failure," Araghchi posted on X.

How is Iran preparing for new strikes?

Rahman Ghahremanpour, a Tehran-based political analyst, told DW Iran's preparations extend beyond missiles and drones into prioritizing internal security.

That includes confronting armed opposition groups, preparing for possible protests and developing plans to prevent external military pressure from combining with domestic unrest. 

Another conflict, he said, could bring renewed internet restrictions and a stronger mobilization of government supporters in public spaces. 

"In the government's asymmetric-war strategy, the ultimate objective is to convince the United States that regime change through military action is impossible," Ghahremanpour said.

Ghahremanpour added that some factions within Iran have supported returning to a negotiated agreement. But he believes Washington's demands are now considered so extensive that even Iranian officials favoring compromise struggle to build domestic support for them. 

"For now, we are facing a deadlock," he said. "Iranian officials do not appear optimistic about reaching an agreement."

Talks continue to stall over Iran's nuclear program, which US officials say must top the agenda. 

Iran's latest proposal to the US, sent through Qatari mediators, included an offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, in exchange for Washington lifting its maritime blockade, releasing frozen assets and ending military actions.

A report

this week from the Wall Street Journal, citing data from ship tracker Kpler, shows that oil flows through Hormuz are approaching pre-war levels as the US military escorts tankers and shipping companies are more willing to take risks for a bigger payoff. This raises questions about Tehran's weakening leverage over oil flows.

Fear of war inside Iran 

For ordinary Iranians, another confrontation would come amid severe economic pressure and growing political polarization. 

A female doctor in Tehran told DW that she fears what will happen if fighting returns. Speaking with the media in Iran remains very dangerous, and she spoke under condition of anonymity.

"The economic situation has become extremely bad," she said. "Even if you have a good income yourself, you don't feel good living among so many people struggling with poverty," she added.

She expects authorities to restrict internet access again if fighting begins. 

Another woman in Tehran described anger toward regime supporters and said another war combined with domestic protests could increase the risk of confrontations on the streets. 

Asked about possible attacks on underground nuclear sites, she said the issue felt increasingly detached from her everyday problems. 

"What do the nuclear sites have to do with us? They are inside mountains," she said. 

Edited: Emmy Sasipornkarn