Flávio Bolsonaro has been given a 99.5 per cent chance of defeating left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s 25 October presidential runoff by the Global Election Simulator (GES), as conventional polls and betting markets point to a strong position for the conservative candidate.
The projection, published on 11 October, anticipates a 53–47 per cent victory, suggesting that the Bolsonaro family could return to the presidency four years after Jair Bolsonaro’s defeat. Similarly, a polling roundup by Poder360 showed Bolsonaro leading in four of the five latest nationwide surveys. PoderData put him at 53 per cent against Lula’s 47; AtlasIntel/Bloomberg measured 52.8 to 47.2; Ipespe recorded 52.7 to 47.3; and Datafolha found a narrower 52–48 lead. Only Vox Brasil gave Lula a slight advantage.
Prediction markets have similarly moved towards Bolsonaro, with Polymarket currently putting his chances at around 84 per cent, compared with 16 per cent for Lula. The favourable polling data have shifted increasingly towards Bolsonaro across virtually every platform since the right-wing challenger’s upset victory over Lula in the 4 October first round, when he won 47.03 per cent of the vote against the incumbent’s 45.16 per cent. Bolsonaro finished roughly 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula.
As no other candidate advanced to the runoff, Bolsonaro has further strengthened his position by absorbing much of the vote cast for other right-wing candidates in the first round. Some influential regional leaders, such as São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, have already backed Bolsonaro in the runoff, while the broader right’s gains in Congress have raised the prospect of a presidency with a more supportive legislature rather than another term of confrontation between a Socialist government and a conservative legislative majority.
One of the most interesting findings of recent polls is how united evangelical Christians have become in supporting Bolsonaro. A recently published AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey found that 72.7 per cent of evangelicals back the right-wing challenger, compared with just 23.5 per cent for Lula. Among Catholics, the same poll found an almost exact split: 48.7 per cent for Bolsonaro and 49 per cent for the president.
The figures reflect a broader and longer-term transformation in Brazilian society, as well as a potential opportunity for conservatives to strengthen their electoral base in the coming years. Evangelicals accounted for only 5.2 per cent of the population in 1970, when Catholics represented 91.8 per cent. By the 2022 census, evangelicals had reached 26.9 per cent, and Catholics had fallen to 56.7 per cent among residents aged ten and over. The evangelical population in that age group numbered approximately 47.4 million, compared with 100.2 million Catholics.
Evangelicals are still a minority, but their expanding numbers, combined with their pronounced preference for Bolsonaro, make them a growing component of the conservative electorate. Catholics remain far more numerous but are much less politically unified. Analysis of the first-round results also found Bolsonaro performing more strongly in municipalities with above-average evangelical populations, where he reportedly secured 52 per cent of valid votes. By contrast, Lula is losing ground even in areas where his party traditionally enjoyed a substantial advantage.
‘One of the most interesting findings of recent polls is how united evangelical Christians have become in supporting Bolsonaro’
With two weeks remaining before the runoff, Lula nevertheless has time to reverse the polling deficit. More than 33 million eligible Brazilians abstained in the first round, leaving both campaigns room to mobilize additional voters. Following his disappointing first-round performance, Lula has overhauled his campaign, adopting what his advisers call a ‘strategy of fear’ centred on attacking Bolsonaro and warning voters that social benefits could be lost under a conservative government—a claim immediately rejected by his challenger.
Beyond Brazil, a Bolsonaro victory would accelerate Latin America’s broader shift to the right, following conservative victories in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and several other countries. As the region’s largest economy and most populous nation, Brazil would give the realignment unprecedented geopolitical weight. It could also fundamentally reshape relations with Washington: while Lula has clashed with Donald Trump over trade tariffs and accused the Bolsonaro family of undermining Brazilian sovereignty, Flávio has advocated closer ties with the US president and his MAGA movement.
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