Brazilian presidential frontrunner Flavio Bolsonaro will need to strike a balance between China and the US on trade if he wins the October 25 runoff, a senior ally said, as reported by Valor.
This week, both campaigns stepped up efforts to mobilise voters in the final stretch of a polarised race.
Senator Tereza Cristina, agriculture minister under Flavio's father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, said China was the largest buyer of Brazilian farm products while the US was the world's biggest market, adding Bolsonaro would have to weigh what mattered most for the country.
"I never spoke with Flavio about how he intends to proceed. What I am certain of is that, when a person sits in that chair, the responsibilities change - balance will be brought to the table in the negotiations,” she said.
Bolsonaro, a right-wing Liberal Party senator, won the October 4 first round with 47.03% of valid votes. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term, took 45.16%.
A recent Datafolha poll gave Bolsonaro 52% of valid votes against the incumbent's 48%, a statistical tie at the limit of the margin of error.
Some 46% of respondents said they would never vote for Lula, while 43% rejected Bolsonaro. Since direct presidential elections returned in 1989, no candidate who came second in the first round has gone on to win the runoff.
The senator said last week that he would work with both Washington and Beijing if elected, according to a Bloomberg report.
“I’m not going to pick sides. My side will be the Brazilian people, whether we’re dealing with China, Israel, the Middle East, Argentina or India. It doesn’t matter. That’s how I’m going to govern,” said Bolsonaro.
But the presidential candidate has pledged to cooperate closely with the Trump administration on trade and crime and has outlined plans to join the US-led Shield of the Americas security initiative.
Bolsonaro's victory would complete a conservative sweep of South America's major economies for right-wing allies of US President Donald Trump. Since taking office in 2025, Trump has sought to reassert US influence in a region that has moved closer to China.
Analysts told Gazeta do Povo that a Bolsonaro government would probably forge closer ties with Washington on security, technology and critical minerals. However, Brazil's trade reliance on China would limit any hard break with Beijing, they said.
China bought $77.1bn of Brazilian goods between January and August, or 30.7% of total exports. That was more than three times the $24.1bn, or 9.6%, shipped to the US.
"The US is a direct competitor of Brazil in sectors such as agribusiness and mining, and it is not in a position to absorb the entire volume of commodities currently exported to China," said economist Marcos Valle.
Bolsonaro has also advocated reviewing Brazil's participation in the BRICS bloc and relaxing Mercosur rules to prioritise a bilateral trade deal with the US, the newspaper reported.
Under current rules, Mercosur members must jointly negotiate trade agreements involving tariff preferences with outside countries.
"In practice, Brazil would gain proximity to Washington and potential benefits in technology and security but would be more exposed to the fluctuations of US foreign policy and more limited in its room for manoeuvre in multilateral forums," said Marco Aurelio da Silva, a professor of foreign trade and international relations.
A Bolsonaro administration would inherit Lula's trade dispute with Washington, rooted in the Trump administration's effort to discourage the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro for an attempted coup — a case in which Brazil's Supreme Court convicted him in September 2025. The US has imposed cumulative additional tariffs of up to 37.5% on some Brazilian goods, affecting around 23.1% of the country's exports to the US, according to Brazil's trade ministry.
The two governments agreed on September 30 to set up a working group to discuss a possible trade deal this year, but the talks have stalled amid Brazil's electoral period.
On the campaign trail, Bolsonaro met São Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas, city mayor Ricardo Nunes and mayors from the metropolitan area on October 11 to shore up support in Brazil's most populous state, Infobae reported.
"I want to be very close to each one of you, mayors. That is how we will build a truly better Brazil, because federal resources will reach the grassroots," Bolsonaro said, promising more funding for municipalities to fight crime.
Lula responded with a large leftist rally on Sao Paulo's Avenida Paulista on the same day, telling a largely young crowd: "This country cannot lose its democracy,” and pledged a "revolution in public security" and a "technological revolution" to boost the digital industry.
With few undecided voters, the Workers' Party is targeting the roughly 33mn Brazilians who did not vote in the first round. Abstention reached 21.08%, the highest in a presidential first round since 1998.
Bolsonaro, his allies and Nunes plan their own rally on Avenida Paulista on October 18.