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You may not have had this one circled on your calendar at the beginning of September, but Saturday’s nightcap between No. 10 Utah and No. 14 Houston could wind up as one of the most important games of the regular season.
But don’t just take my word for it; “College GameDay” is in Salt Lake City this weekend.
After watching BYU stun Notre Dame, the stakes have been raised in the Big 12, and that means that Utah (6-0, 3-0) and Houston (6-1, 3-1) need to answer the bell.
Houston vs. Utah odds, prediction
Utah hasn’t missed a beat in its first season without Kyle Whittingham under the headset since 2003.
Only one team, Colorado, has kept the Utes’ margin of victory under 13 points, and only two teams (Colorado, Kansas) have eclipsed the 20-point plateau against Utah.
It all looks hunky dory in Salt Lake City.
There’s just one problem: Utah’s schedule has yet to present any real challenges just yet. That changes on Saturday against Houston.
While Utah has been able to coast for most of the season so far, Houston has already played four teams ranked inside the top-40 in SP+, going 3-1, with the only loss coming by two points to Texas Tech in a game that was decided by a failed 2-point conversion.
If Houston ended up on the right side of that coin flip, they’d likely be inside the top five in the AP rankings.
Quarterback Conner Weigman gets plenty of praise for being the straw that stirs the drink for Willie Fritz’s Cougars, but the truth is that this is a well-balanced offense.
The Cougars run the ball effectively, relying on Makhi Hughes and Re’Shaun Sanford II to get them ahead of the sticks, which puts Weigman in good spots to do damage. No team in college football boasts a better conversion percentage on third downs than Houston.
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The Utes can move the ball, and Houston’s defense has some suspect numbers, but Weigman and the Cougars’ attack should keep the pressure on Utah all night. I like their chances of answering every question that Devon Dampier and Utah throw at them in this tilt.
Utah is at home and is the better team, but Houston is a battle-tested underdog that won’t be intimidated by the scenes at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
The backdoor will be open for the Cougars, and don’t be surprised if Fritz’s upstarts pull the upset.
The Play: Houston +6.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.