Certain types of bets shouldn't be allowed, and the NFL says it knows which ones cause the most corruption.
The league is so sure, in fact, it wants the Supreme Court to weigh in on the regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets.
'The NFL's highest priority is preserving the integrity of its games.'
In September, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport asked the Supreme Court of the United States to review a court decision that puts prediction markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which makes them only subject to federal regulation.
The petition has since been joined by about 40 states.
The NFL wrote an amicus brief last week in support of New Jersey's petition for SCOTUS to grant certiorari, meaning a judicial review, of platforms like Kalshi, which the league mentioned by name.
The football league argued that prediction markets allow bets that otherwise wouldn't — and shouldn't, in their view — be possible to make on sporting events, due to the impact they could have on the integrity of games.
"Federally designated contract markets (DCMs) like respondent Kalshi" are not "subject to the same rigorous regulatory constructs and oversight provided by state gaming authorities," the NFL wrote.
The league claimed that on the first Sunday of the 2026 NFL season, more than half of all prediction market trading was related to the NFL, $1.8 billion out of $3.3 billion. Simply put, there is a lot of risk that comes out of such a high volume of wagers.
The league says integrity is at stake when bets on injuries, individuals' plays, and referee calls are allowed, all of which they say can be easily known or individually manipulated.
In a media kit outlining the league's approach to betting, the NFL explained the type of bets it believes should be barred.
Bets that are "inherently objectionable" are listed first, which are defined as being "derogatory or inflammatory" and related to player injuries, fan safety, or misconduct.
This would likely include infamous wagers placed on events, like sex toys being thrown on the court at WNBA games.
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Bets based on outcomes that are "100% determinable by one person in one play," like a field goal attempt or pass completion, should also be banned, the NFL says, as should those involving predetermined outcomes "directly related to on-field competition," such as a team's first play being a run or pass.
These and "officiating-related" bets being allowed present an "undue to risk to game integrity," the league says.
"The NFL's highest priority is preserving the integrity of its games," the league reiterated in its brief.
"State and sportsbook protections include bans on manipulable or objectionable bets, information-sharing agreements regarding official league data for accurate bet settlement, and bet monitoring to ensure that league insiders do not trade on material nonpublic information," it added.
The NFL pushed further restrictions, such as increasing the age requirement of prediction markets from 18 to 21 years old.
Furthermore, the NFL said there simply aren't enough regulators monitoring sporting events at the federal level, especially when compared to state regulators.
"Nevada and Pennsylvania, for instance, have close to 400 employees each. ... The Commission, meanwhile, has only 543 employees covering the entire country and whose responsibilities include a broad range of derivatives beyond event contracts," the NFL argued.
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A Kalshi spokesperson told the New York Post in a statement that its top priority is market integrity.
"That priority is reflected in the fact that every other major sports league and integrity partner in the United States is partnering with Kalshi – including the MLB, NHL, and others," the spokesperson said.
"Contrary to the NFL's statements, the CFTC is actively policing sports-related markets, which are now listed on nearly every U.S. commodities exchange," Kalshi added.
Polymarket told the Post that it shares the NFL's commitment to integrity, stating that as the reason behind its "advanced market surveillance tools" and collaboration with federal regulators.
The NFL has partnerships with three betting platforms for the 2026 season: DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics Betting and Gaming.
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