Many South Caucasus and Central Asian countries show resilience amid Middle East crisis – IMF

Photo: IMF official website

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. Many countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia are demonstrating resilience amid the crisis in the Middle East, said Jihad Azour, Director of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Middle East and Central Asia Department during a briefing, Trend reports.

“Countries directly affected by the conflict are facing significant pressure, while other economies in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as a significant number of countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, have demonstrated greater resilience,” he said.

Azour noted that the outlook largely depends on how quickly energy production and trade normalize, as well as on countries’ ability to maintain macroeconomic stability.

“Against the backdrop of the conflict, oil production has fallen sharply in almost all oil-exporting countries directly affected by it. At the same time, disruptions to shipping and petroleum product supplies have led to a significant increase in fuel prices.

“Nevertheless, the impact has been less severe than initially anticipated. Pre-war fiscal surpluses, oil production outside the Persian Gulf countries, alternative transportation routes, demand adjustments, and the extensive use of accumulated reserves have helped mitigate the negative effects,” he said.

Azour added that these factors had bought time, but their capacity to cushion the impact was limited.

“Reserves have declined, spare production capacity has decreased, and further disruptions could lead to much sharper price fluctuations,” he noted.