The Detroit Tigerstraded starting pitcher Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers for outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handers River Ryan and Brady Smith on Aug. 1, a day and a half before the 2026 MLB trade deadline. Skubal was playing out the final year of his contract on a $32 million arbitration salary, and the Tigers wanted to get something back rather than watch him leave for nothing.
The question now is what kind of pay day he gets on the open market. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers is still the largest guarantee ever handed to a pitcher, and the projections on Skubal all start right about there. So this is not really a question of whether Detroit wants him back. It is a question of whether the Tigers will beat the biggest contract any pitcher has ever signed.
What a Tarik Skubal contract would cost the Detroit Tigers
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel surveyed 27 industry insiders on Oct. 2, and the average projection came back at eight years and $355 million, a $44.6 million average annual value. Sixteen of the 27, or 59 percent, landed between $325 million and $400 million over seven to 10 years. The full spread ran from four years and $176 million to 10 years and $500 million. SI’s Tigers site put the number in that same $325 million to $400 million window.
Twenty-one of those 27 panelists expect Skubal to sign before Dec. 1, when the current collective bargaining agreement expires. The Dodgers and the New York Mets were named as true contenders, with the New York Yankees close behind and the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres listed as sleepers. Detroit was on the contender list too, which is the one part of this that should give Tigers fans something to hold onto.
Detroit already declined to pay him once
This is the hard part of the argument. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said after the deadline that the club had approached Skubal and his camp about an extension at one point, and that it was made clear to him Skubal wanted to reach free agency.
“Which is totally his right, and nobody should be upset about that,” Harris said. He called it irresponsible not to move Skubal given the market for him, and he put the season on himself: “It’s not on the players. It’s not on the coaches. It’s on me.”
So a front office that would not get an extension done, and then traded him for prospects, is now being asked to outbid the Dodgers and the Mets at full price. Detroit does not just have to find the money. It has to explain the reversal.
Framber Valdez set the current Tigers ceiling
Detroit’s largest pitching commitment is Framber Valdez, who signed a three-year, $115 million deal in February. His $38.3 million average annual value set a record for left-handed pitchers, and he can opt out after the second season. He was brought in to slot behind Skubal, and he is the top of the rotation now by default.
That is a real commitment. It is also not in the same conversation as $355 million over eight years. If the Tigers want to put a second front-line arm next to Valdez, Skubal is the best one available, and he is also the most expensive player on the board by a wide margin.
What the Tigers would be paying for
Skubal made 26 starts in 2026 between Detroit and Los Angeles and went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA. He threw 158 2/3 innings, gave up 126 hits and 52 runs, walked 27 and struck out 186, and finished with a 0.96 WHIP. He is 29 and turns 30 on Nov. 20, so the longest deals on the board would run deep into his 30s.
It would still be a major surprise if the Tigers gave Skubal a record-breaking contract. The money sits outside anything Detroit has shown it will spend on one player, and Harris already walked away from a smaller version of this decision. Someone is going to pay Skubal. Going on what the Tigers have already done, it is hard to see it being them.