BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 2:50 p.m. ET · Source: PoderData/Aya poll, via Poder360
Key Facts
- —The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro 50% and Lula 50% of valid votes in the PoderData/Aya poll published on Friday, 16 October.
- —What changed Flávio led 53% to 47% on 8 October and 51% to 49% on 13 October, so his lead went from six points to zero.
- —Margin of error 1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, TSE registration BR-04258/2026.
- —Fieldwork 3,000 voters interviewed by telephone on 13, 14 and 15 October.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 2:47 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 23% and 24%), as of 16 October, 2:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Whether the Senate’s vote on the 6×1 work schedule during the interview days moved any voters.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 24%
As of 16 October, 2:40 pm ET (19:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, are tied at 50% of valid votes each in a new PoderData/Aya poll released on Friday, 16 October. The poll lands in the final stretch of the Brazil election 2026, with the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
Flávio led 53% to 47% on 8 October and 51% to 49% on 13 October, so his advantage has shrunk from six points to zero in eight days. Every survey is listed in our Brazil election polls tracker.
What the PoderData/Aya Poll Found
PoderData interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone on 13, 14 and 15 October, Terra reported. The survey has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-04258/2026.
PoderData is a polling institute whose results are published by the news site Poder360, which published the numbers. Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how the electoral court reports results.
From Six Points to Zero in Eight Days
On 8 October the same poll had Flávio ahead 53% to 47%, CNN Brasil reported. On 13 October it was 51% to 49%, and on 16 October it is 50% to 50%.
Both candidates sit well inside the 1.8-point margin of error, so the poll cannot say who is ahead. Terra noted that the Senate approved a constitutional amendment ending the 6×1 work schedule, under which many employees work six days and rest one, while the interviews were running, though the poll does not show whether it moved voters.
Other pollsters still show a small Flávio edge. A CNT/MDA poll published the same Friday had him at 50.5% to Lula’s 49.5%, and Datafolha had him at 51% to 49% on 15 October.
What It Means for US Readers
A dead heat means Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies can swing on each new survey until 25 October. Our tracker lets you compare pollsters in one place.
For US trade and politics, the winner sets Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A tie inside the margin of error leaves both outcomes open.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 2:47 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.8 million in total bets, and we track it on our Brazil election odds page.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Terra reported at 7:30 a.m. ET that Poder360’s text did not include total votes, meaning the shares of blank, null and undecided voters. We therefore report valid votes only.
It is also not known whether the Senate vote moved any voters during the interviews. A poll measures opinion on the days of fieldwork and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from PoderData/Aya?
Neither candidate leads: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula are tied at 50% of valid votes each. The poll was published on Friday, 16 October.
How did the PoderData/Aya poll change this week?
On 8 October Flávio led 53% to 47%, and on 13 October 51% to 49%. His lead has gone from six points to zero.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The survey interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone on 13 to 15 October.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots. The electoral court reports results this way, so pollsters publish it too.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday, 25 October, nine days after this poll was published. The winner serves a four-year term as president.
Sources: Poder360 (PoderData/Aya), 16 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 16 October 2026; Terra, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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