Michigan is coming off a bye week where they've gotten a chance to hopefully hit the reset button after a disappointing 3-2 start. Their Oklahoma win has aged a bit better, as the Sooners took down the #1 ranked Texas Longhorns this past weekend but that win doesn't overshadow the two tough losses the Wolverines have up to this point.
Michigan's defense has been mostly great so far this season, but the offense has had a really tough time getting going. Despite all their struggles, Michigan isn't even the most disappointing team playing in this game.
Penn State is sitting at 3-3 overall, but an 0-3 record in Big Ten play. They beat Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo to begin the season but have dropped three in a row to Wisconsin, Northwestern, and USC.
Both teams have their work cut out for them the rest of this season, and that's partially why this game is so interesting. The loser of this game may find themselves in a lost season and despite being in the first year at their new schools, the losing head coach could very well find themselves on the hot seat.
With all of that in mind, let's dive into the best bet for this game below.
ESPN's FPI
To get the power rating for each team, I've been using ESPN's FPI. In that metric, Penn State ranks surprisingly high at 26th nationally with a power rating of 12.5. That means that on a neutral field when matched up with the perfectly average team (North Dakota State is a 0.0 power rating for example), the Nittany Lions would be favored by 12.5 points.
Michigan on the other hand is ranked 34th nationally in the FPI with a power rating of 10.9. They've been on a sharp downward trend since the season started. With Michigan being currently rated at a 10.9, that means against the same North Dakota State team, they'd be favored by roughly 10.9 points on a neutral field.
Spread Analysis
To get the projected spread for this game using ESPN's FPI, you subtract Michigan's power rating of 10.9 from Penn State's power rating of 12.5. That gives you a 1.6 point advantage in favor of the Nittany Lions on a neutral field.
With this game being at the Big House, you have to account for home field advantage. Typically home field in college football is worth anywhere from 0-5 points, and for this game I'm put it right in the middle at 3 in favor of the Wolverines. Taking all of that into account, ESPN's FPI pumps out a projected spread of -1.5 in favor of Michigan.
Best Bet
The current spread on DraftKings Sportsbook shows Michigan -7, so with the FPI projected spread of -1.5, it's showing some good value on Penn State's side. For my best bet in this game I'm going to side with the model (that is 3-2 on the season so far) and take Penn State +7 for the best bet in this game.
The reason I'm siding with the model is because number one, this game's Over/Under is currently at 42.5 so they're projecting a low scoring game overall. With that score projection, it's hard to envision the Wolverines being able to cover the spread and win by more than a touchdown. It very well could be a 17-13 type game, but I'm not sure I see that happening.
Penn State's offense showed some signs of life last weekend against USC and I think they'll be able to at least reach the mid-teens in this game. I still think Michigan wins this game, mostly of the strength of their defense. Michigan's offense has too many problems for me to believe they've gotten right over just one bye week.
Give me the Wolverines to win this game 23-17 over Penn State, and the Nittany Lions +7 for the best bet in this game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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