SANTA CLARA — It’s been a week since Nick Bosa made the bold declaration that it was “pretty darn likely” that he would be able to shake off the calf strain that’s kept him sidelined since Week 2 in time for the 49ers’ Monday night showdown against the Commanders.
And yet, still, San Francisco’s star edge rusher has been nowhere to be found.
Bosa didn’t practice Friday for the second straight day and hasn’t even been spotted off to the side during the portion open to reporters. Barring the unexpected, it would appear that his proclamation a week ago won’t come to fruition.
Now, that might sound like bad news. And nobody would blame the 49ers Faithful, of all fan bases, to be conditioned to interpret any less-than-glowing health update in a negative light.
But let’s pump the brakes.
While Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that he was still “hoping” to have Bosa on Monday night, the 49ers coach has put his team in a position where there’s no need to force it.
Just about everything that could go right has through the first five weeks of the season. Yet another break went their way to begin Week 6, when Sam Darnold was picked off in overtime Thursday night, sending the Seahawks into the same unenviable position as the Rams:
A full three games behind the 49ers in the loss column.
San Francisco is in full control of the NFC West, but there’s been one glaring exception to its 5-0 start — all those darn injuries. Impressive as it’s been for the 49ers to stack wins while losing more bodies by the week, it’s time to cash in some of that breathing room.
Bosa is hardly the only Niner nursing nagging ailments. Mike Evans, who has toughed out broken ribs, started experiencing Achilles soreness this week. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk returned to practice but remained limited by his hyperextended knee. Defensive tackle Gracen Halton (quad), left tackle Colton McKivitz (illness) and backup guard Carver Willis (toe) were also new additions to the practice participation report.
The 49ers have given themselves the freedom to slow-play it with all of them.
Why not take advantage of it?
In theory, even if the 49ers lost both of their next two games — not ideal, nor likely — they would still go into their Week 8 bye on top of the NFC West, at 5-2. It’s not like they need Bosa to beat the Commanders or the Falcons — they sacked Darnold five times, pressured him on 40% of his dropbacks and won on the road in Seattle without their best pass rusher.
Evans is of more importance given the state of the rest of the 49ers’ receiving corps. But if there was ever a week that San Francisco could get by with Brandin Cooks and Jordan Watkins as their top two wideouts, it would be against the NFL’s 29th-ranked pass defense.
At this point, doesn’t the prospect of allowing Bosa and anybody else who needs an extra week to get fully healthy for the stretch run outweigh the cost-benefit of a win or loss?
“We’re always toeing that line,” general manager John Lynch said Friday in his weekly appearance on the 49ers’ flagship radio network. “We want to make sure that when we get him back, we have him back for good. You know that he’s not gonna reinjure it.”
The spotlight of Monday night acts as a bit of a double-edged sword. Theoretically, the extra day would give Bosa a better chance of making it back. But on the other hand, the 49ers would have to hope and pray that his calf holds up with only six days to recover before their next game.
Shanahan said the 49ers aren’t taking the short week into account in the determination of Bosa’s chances to play this week. “It’s more about how, is he fully recovered from the calf and what are the percentages of him reinjuring that?”
But it goes without saying that the chances of reinjury go down the longer Bosa has to rest and the longer he has to recover after returning. The bye week after they play Atlanta next week presents as soft a landing as any, the best chance to set him up for a healthy second half.
In fairness, Bosa couched his confidence last week with a “possibly” and a “probably.”
But the week after, in Atlanta? “Definitely,” Bosa said.
That was the date he and the 49ers had been targeting all along.
They shouldn’t play any games with the health of arguably their most important defender.
Stick to the plan. Give him one more week. Then let him unleash the full fury of Nick Bosa.