- The US and Morocco: an expanding strategic alliance
- Spain and the US–Morocco–Israel strategic axis
- Relations with Algeria
The report published by the Elcano Royal Institute places Spain within a regional context in which Morocco is gaining strategic autonomy, expanding its alliances and strengthening its influence beyond the Maghreb.
In response to these developments, Madrid is seeking to capitalise on its key assets vis-à-vis Washington, such as the bases at Rota and Morón, whilst also highlighting the value of its membership of the European Union and NATO, as well as its geographical position.
The report explains how the consolidation of the US–Morocco axis poses, on the one hand, the risk of reducing Spain’s ability to influence US policy in North Africa. On the other hand, this situation offers Spain the opportunity to strengthen its relevance in the western Mediterranean, the African Atlantic and the Sahel.
According to the same source, the challenge facing Madrid is not to curb Rabat’s strategic rise, but to ensure that this does not result in a loss of Spanish influence in Washington. For this reason, Spain must establish itself as a strategic partner that is difficult to replace and strengthen its role as a bridge between Europe, the Mediterranean and Africa.
The US and Morocco: an expanding strategic alliance
The relationship between the United States and Morocco has evolved from a historic alliance centred on security towards a multidimensional partnership encompassing geo-economics, supply chains, energy, technology and the expansion of their strategic interests in Africa.
These ties between the two sides were strengthened following the 9/11 attacks, with bilateral cooperation in the fight against terrorism, intelligence-sharing and regional security as central pillars. Added to this was the Free Trade Agreement, signed in 2004 and which came into force in 2006, which enabled economic ties to be strengthened and trade relations with Rabat to be diversified.
During the Obama administration, both countries institutionalised their cooperation through the 2012 Strategic Dialogue, which broadened collaboration in the fields of security, the economy, education and culture. In this regard, instability in the Sahel, the war in Libya and the spread of jihadism reinforced Morocco’s role as a regional partner of Washington.
The main turning point came in 2020, during the first Trump administration, when Morocco normalised its relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords and the United States recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. These decisions have represented a significant diplomatic success for Rabat, strengthening its strategic position, despite causing tensions with Algeria and provoking rejection from the Polisario Front.
Whilst the Biden administration maintained US recognition of Western Sahara and continued military and counter-terrorism cooperation, Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 strengthened the strategic alliance between the United States and Morocco, with the aim of translating political support into concrete diplomatic and economic results.
As for Western Sahara, Washington has gone beyond its 2020 recognition by regarding the Moroccan autonomy plan as the only viable way to resolve the conflict. In this vein, Rabat aims to consolidate this support through American investment in the southern territories and to bring other Western countries round to its position, shifting the debate towards sovereignty, regional stability, development and security, although this backing does not necessarily imply a definitive resolution of the conflict.
In parallel with this, the bilateral relationship is taking on an increasingly significant geo-economic dimension, with opportunities for cooperation in energy, artificial intelligence, critical minerals and defence. Morocco therefore aspires to become a strategic hub for US companies, thanks to its free trade agreement with Washington, its proximity to the European market and its growing industrial presence in Africa.
This position reinforces its appeal as a nearshoring destination and its status as a US partner in diversifying supply chains and reducing strategic dependencies on China.
Spain and the US–Morocco–Israel strategic axis
Donald Trump’s policy reinforces Morocco’s foreign strategy, which is geared towards consolidating its position on Western Sahara at the international level and reducing its political dependence on Europe. Since the US recognition in 2020, Rabat has linked this territorial claim to Washington’s strategic interests, such as security, military cooperation, investment and supply chains.
At the same time, the triangular relationship between the United States, Morocco and Israel has gained significance, particularly in defence, intelligence and technology. For Spain, this convergence introduces new elements into the strategic balance in the western Mediterranean.
Although the strengthening of this axis does not necessarily imply a deterioration in Spain’s position, it compels Madrid to manage sensitive issues with greater care, such as the Sahara, relations between Morocco and Algeria, Ceuta and Melilla, cooperation on migration and counter-terrorism, and Spain’s strategic value to Washington.
US backing for Morocco’s proposal for autonomy in the Sahara does, in fact, reduce Spain’s room for manoeuvre in addressing the conflict exclusively at the bilateral or European level, in a context where Washington has become a key player, whilst Rabat is gaining the capacity to internationalise its position.
The report by the Elcano Royal Institute states that Morocco’s growing strength does not necessarily mean Spain will be sidelined as a US partner. Both countries play complementary roles: Spain contributes its membership of NATO and the EU, its geographical position, and the bases at Rota and Morón, which are fundamental to US military projection.
For its part, Morocco offers political stability, counter-terrorism cooperation and the ability to exert influence in Africa and the Sahel. The main risk for Madrid is losing its leading role in certain North African affairs if Rabat consolidates its status as Washington’s direct strategic partner.
Relations with Algeria
This development also complicates Spain’s diplomatic balancing act between Morocco and Algeria, two key partners for different reasons. Whilst Rabat is indispensable for migration management, counter-terrorism and trade, Algeria retains strategic importance in the fields of energy and security. Growing regional polarisation could limit Spain’s ability to maintain stable relations with both countries and protect its interests in the Maghreb.
The Elcano Royal Institute concluded its report by addressing the issue of Ceuta and Melilla, and military cooperation between Morocco and Israel. In this regard, statements by certain US figures and references to both cities in a parliamentary report do not constitute a change in the official policy of Washington and Israel, which have reaffirmed Spanish sovereignty. However, Rabat’s growing influence in the United States makes it necessary for Madrid to strengthen its direct dialogue.
Furthermore, cooperation between Israel and Morocco on drones, air defence, intelligence and technology could alter the regional military balance and expand Morocco’s strategic capabilities in the medium term.