Just two weeks ago, the Texas Longhorns were the No. 1 team in the country. Barring any midseason blowups, a playoff berth seemed almost certain.
Two weeks later, those midseason blowups arrived. And now, the Longhorns are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Saturday's 27–24 loss to Florida was Texas’ second straight defeat after blowing a double-digit lead, dropping Steve Sarkisian’s team to 4–2 overall and 1–2 in SEC play.
While the margin for error is the slimmest it’s been all season, Texas isn’t entirely out of the playoff picture. But the way back is far more complicated for the now-No. 19 Longhorns.
The SEC Championship Path Is Narrow
Even if Texas wins out the rest of its regular season, that still just means a 7–2 SEC record. That obviously gives the Longhorns a 10–2 overall record and a great chance of being in the playoff picture, but offers no guarantee of a trip to Atlanta.
Georgia and Kentucky — putting those teams in the same sentence is a bit jarring, but it's where we’re at — sit atop the SEC standings with a 4–1 record. Tennessee and Ole Miss are just behind them with 3–1 records.
To put it bluntly: An SEC Championship appearance for Texas is no longer in its own hands.
But then again, if this SEC season has proven anything, it’s that no outcome is guaranteed.
Just look at Saturday, when Auburn traveled to Athens and stunned No. 1 Georgia 27–24, ending its time atop the rankings after just one week. Or the fact that an Ole Miss team that got blown out by Florida in September dismantled Missouri 31–3. The same Missouri team that beat Florida 45–17 just two weeks earlier.
The Longhorns still need to win out and get plenty of help around the conference while doing it. But in a conference this unpredictable, it’s impossible to rule anything out.
The At-Large Path Remains Open
If Texas wins the SEC Championship, its playoff spot is guaranteed. But given where the Longhorns currently stand, an at-large bid seems more likely.
Fortunately for the Longhorns, we live in a time when two-loss SEC teams can still make the playoffs.
Despite falling to No. 19 after Saturday’s loss, Texas’ two impressive wins haven’t gone anywhere.
The Longhorns still have wins over two top-15 teams: No. 3 Ohio State and No. 11 Tennessee. Both victories could prove to be valuable when the selection committee begins releasing its rankings on Nov. 3.
The problem is that Texas doesn't look like a playoff team right now, and can hardly afford another performance like Saturday's, much less another loss.
And its remaining schedule won’t make things easy.
No. 7 Ole Miss travels to Austin next Saturday, followed by a Halloween matchup against Mississippi State. The Longhorns then face consecutive road trips to No. 22 Missouri and No. 18 LSU before finishing the regular season against Arkansas and Texas A&M in College Station.
That’s six consecutive conference games, including three against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
Win all six, and a 10–2 Texas team with wins over Ohio State, Tennessee and potentially several other ranked opponents would have a strong case for one of the playoff's seven at-large bids.
But another loss would make things considerably more difficult. Texas learned last season where three regular-season losses can leave it: watching Steve Sarkisian get showered in Cheez-Its instead of celebrating under burnt-orange confetti.
Of course, none of this matters if things don’t change for Texas. The Longhorns have now squandered two double-digit leads against unranked teams, and the consistency needed to not only go undefeated but actually compete with the SEC’s best seems nowhere to be found.
The Longhorns haven’t been mathematically eliminated. ESPN still gives them a 41% chance to earn a bid. But after Saturday's loss, simply pointing to early-season accomplishments won’t be enough.
The Longhorns have six games left to prove they still belong in the playoff conversation.
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