The Golden State Warriors' range of outcomes for the 2026-27 season feels unusually high for an NBA team.
That's because the Warriors have so many player availability question marks.
We'll start with the team's worst-case scenario and follow it up with a best-case scenario for the team and a young player.
Team Worst-Case Scenario: Miss the Play-In Tournament
The worst-case scenario would occur if most (if not all) of the following things happen:
- Stephen Curry suffers another significant injury
- Kristaps Porzingis has major availability issues
- Jimmy Butler comes back later than expected
- Butler's effectiveness drops (37-year-old coming off ACL tear)
- Moses Moody comes back later than expected
- One or two other Warriors rotation players suffer significant injuries
- Curry has a noticeable decline
None of these things would be particularly shocking, but the one that feels like an absolute lock to torpedo their season is Curry suffering a long-term injury.
Curry missed 27 consecutive games (and 39 overall) last year with runner's knee. The Warriors will be managing his workload more than they ever have to try to keep him healthy.
Curry had a great season last year when healthy. If he declined at all, it certainly wasn't noticeable, as he averaged 26.6 points.
But there are reasons to be concerned.
At times, it looked like he wasn't moving well this preseason. And he's 38 years old. There is no precedent for a smaller guard (6'2") to play this well this late into their career.
If Curry plays 65-70 games and plays as well as he did last year, the Warriors can probably withstand just about everything else and still sneak into the playoffs.
Team Best-Case Scenario: Top-Six Seed and Second-Round Elimination
If the Warriors get the best version of Curry, Butler and Moody and stay relatively healthy otherwise, they will be a scary playoff team.
Their best possible starting lineup is as follows:
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Moses Moody
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Yaxel Lendeborg
C: Draymond Green
Moody is the perfect wing to play with the other four due to his three-point shooting and on-ball defense.
Brandin Podziemski would play the role of sixth man, which is probably what he should be on a championship-caliber roster.
Porzingis would be a valuable rotation piece if healthy, but the Warriors could also look to use his $20 million salary to trade him for one or two more reliable players. The dream would be getting Trey Murphy III, but some more realistic options are listed here, including Bulls center Nic Claxton.
The Dubs would finish in the top six to avoid the Thunder or the Spurs, and after winning their first-round series (likely against the Nuggets, Timberwolves or Rockets), they'd get one of the two Western Conference juggernauts.
Eventually, the rigors of the playoffs would get to this older roster, but the Warriors would put up a fight against either West power.
Player Best-Case Scenario: Lendeborg Becomes Legit Second or Third Offensive Option
My expectations for Lendeborg are very high this season. The median outcome for a 6'9" player who can play-make out of pick-and-rolls, shoot threes, finish inside and rebound is a useful starter.
But the high-end outcome is he puts up better offensive numbers than he had in college.
Lendeborg averaged 15.1 points per game with Michigan last year, but he took only 9.7 field-goal attempts per game. Two years ago, he averaged 17.7 points for UAB, but he made only 25 threes the whole season.
Lendeborg's three-point shot already looks better than it ever did in college. And just as importantly, Lendeborg is taking advantage of the extra space in the paint from the NBA game on his drives.
There's a realistic best-case scenario in which a) Lendeborg shoots more than ever and b) makes more three-pointers per game than ever and c) remains as efficient as he was in college.
If he does all those things, he could average 20 points per game as a rookie.
Even if he falls short of that number, anything over 15 would be a sign the Warriors made a great pick.
It's looking like he'll be Golden State's second scorer when Butler and Porzingis are out. And when Butler comes back, he could thrive as the team's third scorer.
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