London: A satellite speed test on a European motorway is an unusual way to check whether Donald Trump can be trusted. But the test results are impossible to ignore when they challenge everything the American president claims about the war in Ukraine.
The results also have implications for every American ally when the findings suggest the Trump administration has slowed the speed of the Starlink satellite network, and its Starshield military system, so Ukrainian targets are more exposed to Russian attacks.
Just think of the gravity of that decision. All the signs suggest the Americans made a technical change that increased civilian casualties.
Without Starlink working properly, Ukrainian drones lost the power to intercept Russian drones. The rational conclusion is that civilians died from a decision in Washington DC to limit the use of an American network.
The speed test was undertaken in recent days by Ukrainian personnel who took Starlink equipment into a nearby European Union country to check whether they would get the same slow speeds they experienced when using the terminals in Ukraine.
The result? Starlink worked for vehicles travelling at 180km/h in Europe. In Ukraine, however, service cut out for drones travelling at more than 161km/h.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed the results to journalists on Saturday (Sunday AEDT) and explained why they mattered. When Ukrainian forces send a drone to intercept a Russian attack, he said, they “lose the drone” when it travels at a speed higher than the Starlink cap.
While they could slow the drone, of course, that would only make it harder to intercept a Russian kamikaze drone heading for an apartment building.
Zelensky concluded that the technical limit on Starlink in Ukraine was no accident.
“Limitations are in effect on the territory of Ukraine, and limitations are not in effect on the territory of the EU countries,” he said. “That is, this is a planned operation.”
So, who planned it? This is a question every American ally, including Australia, should want answered.
Trump denies being responsible and also tries to protect Elon Musk, the founder and controller of Starlink and its parent company, SpaceX.
“It wasn’t me and I don’t think it was Elon,” he said on Friday.
Well, somebody in the Trump administration did it. The Telegraph reported on Friday that Musk suggested the move to Trump, who liked the idea. Reuters reported the order came from inside the White House.
Trump claims he wants peace in Ukraine, but his latest decisions have the effect of helping Russia wage war. He has blocked funding for Ukraine, limited its access to Patriot interceptors, hedged on a security guarantee in any ceasefire and suggested Zelensky should cede more territory to Putin. He is also unwinding sanctions against Russia, starting with a deal to let the Kremlin make more money from diesel fuel exports.
“It’s immoral and it makes no sense,” the former US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, said of the diesel and sanctions moves on US television. “What American national interest is advanced by these decisions? There’s none.”
Australians should be watching this closely. Remember, it was only 18 months ago that Trump talked of having a way to limit the features of jet fighters used by allies. This “kill switch” talk alarmed the US defence industry, which feared it would lose sales.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is responding carefully to what Trump says. He has started a review of a Canadian plan to buy a fleet of F-35 stealth fighters from the US. Canada has also gained “observer” status on a sixth-generation fighter being developed by the UK, Italy and Japan.
At a time when Australia is committed to buying US submarines under the AUKUS program, it is essential to confront the inherent risk in relying on the US under Trump. It is no longer science fiction to think that someone in Washington DC might want to “switch off” the military capability of an ally.
Ukraine is not a formal US ally. Until Trump, however, it was promised full support from America under security agreements. Former president Joe Biden hedged on shipping some of the armaments Zelensky wanted, but he kept funding Ukraine to try to stop Russia because this was seen as vital to the interest of the US and its NATO allies.
Yes, the head-spinning shift under Trump betrays Ukraine. But it does more than this. It warns all American partners of the danger of depending on an unreliable ally.
European leaders, like those in Australia, are extremely wary of offending Trump by directly criticising his decisions to help Putin. Their approach is to use optics, like the social media clips of their warm meetings with Zelensky, to show where they stand.
Zelensky has a very different objective. He has acted to maximise attention on the American decision on Starlink speeds. The effect is to highlight the questions about Trump’s judgment, even if Zelensky risks an even greater rupture in his relationship with the president.
What else can Zelensky do? There seems to be no benefit to Ukraine in staying quiet, so Zelensky seeks to make sure that Americans know what Trump has done.
Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.