The controversy surrounding former US ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle could spill into Greek domestic politics, as developments in the United States raise questions about what Greek officials knew about her activities, according to an analysis by Dionysis Nasopoulos in Ta Nea.
With the US approaching crucial midterm elections, the Guilfoyle affair is becoming a major political issue in Washington. In Athens, however, officials are also considering whether the fallout could reach Greece and force government figures to answer questions before US congressional committees or other American authorities.
One view, which broadly follows the Greek government’s position, holds that the affair concerns the United States alone and that Athens should simply monitor developments without commenting. Another view argues that Guilfoyle carried out at least some of her activities in Greece, potentially exposing local figures to scrutiny if the controversy escalates.
A damaging turn in the affair could lead US authorities to summon people from Athens to provide evidence or explain what they knew or suspected. Such a scenario could put the Greek government under pressure to clarify its awareness of events.
The controversy also highlights the unpredictable nature of diplomacy. As Athens awaits Guilfoyle’s successor at the US Embassy, the government hopes the affair will not create further complications and that its diplomatic concerns will remain focused on relations with Turkey.
Nasopoulos warns that developments over the six weeks leading up to the end of November could change the political agenda if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan takes steps that Athens considers unacceptable, deepening mutual mistrust.
Greece and Turkey Face a Critical Period in the Aegean
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently described the situation in the Aegean as a “light swell”. According to the analysis, his remark reflects the hope that Turkey will remain committed to diplomacy rather than confidence that tensions will stay under control. A deterioration could push both countries into uncharted waters and trigger unpredictable developments.
Preparations have begun to resume work on laying the electricity interconnector linking Greece with Cyprus and, eventually, Israel. Plans will face practical tests in the coming weeks as the project moves towards its next stage.
At the same time, Ankara is preparing legislation on the so-called “Blue Homeland” doctrine. According to the article, the proposed law would give Erdoğan broad authority to decide how Turkey responds to disputes with Greece, potentially allowing Ankara to establish new facts on the ground.
Sources in Ankara indicate that officials have already drafted the bill. Its submission to the Turkish Grand National Assembly now depends on Erdoğan’s decision about whether and when to proceed.
The Turkish president has recently said that countries should resolve their differences through dialogue and diplomacy. He also described mutual respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity as a principle for Turkey.
Athens may interpret those remarks as a signal that Ankara intends to exercise restraint and avoid a new confrontation.
Electricity Cable Could Trigger a New Aegean Standoff
Ankara could accept an informal briefing on the electricity interconnector to demonstrate domestically that Greece and the other participants in the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) project have not ignored Turkey’s concerns. Such a move could give diplomacy a greater role in managing the dispute.
However, the article warns against assuming that Turkey will limit itself to diplomatic statements. It points to Ankara’s past actions and positions, including the 1974 invasion of Cyprus, its casus belli threat over the extension of Greek territorial waters, disputes over so-called grey zones in the Aegean and the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum.
Based on this record, the coming weeks could see frigates and submarines deployed in the sea area southeast of Kasos as the electricity cable project advances.
Nasopoulos cautions that few would welcome a scenario of supposedly controlled tension, even if either side saw domestic political advantages in it, because military encounters always carry the risk of accidents and escalation.
France, Europe and the United States Could Face Pressure to Respond
The analysis identifies the response from France and the wider European Union as a key factor if tensions escalate. The GSI project carries European backing, making the reaction from European capitals particularly significant.
Washington’s response will also attract attention, especially if the Guilfoyle controversy has not yet developed into a full-blown political crisis in the United States.
The coming weeks could therefore test Greece’s diplomatic position on two fronts: the potential political fallout from the former US ambassador’s activities and the risk of renewed confrontation with Turkey over the electricity interconnector.
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