ANDY WALKER: Polls contain more bad news for P.E.I. government

The latest polling conducted by Narrative Research contains little in the way of good news for the Rob Lantz government.

A survey conducted by the Halifax-based company in mid-September indicates a 59 per cent level of dissatisfaction level with the current administration. That is an increase from the 55 per cent level recorded three months earlier. There was also a two per cent increase in the number of people satisfied with the government’s performance as it stood at 18 in the survey.

Lantz had the lowest satisfaction level in the regional survey with Tony Wakeham in Newfoundland and Labrador coming in at 23 per cent and Nova’s Scotia’s Tim Houston at 26 per cent. Susan Holt of New Brunswick topped the list with a 33 per cent approval rating.

A news release from Narrative Research pegs Lantz’s poor result on concerns over fiscal management, leadership and a lack of progress on issues like housing, health care and economic development. To be fair to the premier, this is far from an ideal time to be an incumbent. While he has only been a office since February, the Progressive Conservatives have been in power since 2019.

The world economic situation, caused largely by the mercurial actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, is more uncertain that most of us can remember in our lifetime. As winter approaches, it is anybody’s guess what oil and gas prices will look like next week, never mind in the dead of winter when consumption is at its peak. Inflation is climbing as costs rise and Islanders are examining their spending habits, looking for places to cut.

All of this is beyond the premier’s control but the fact remains incumbent governments often pay a price at the polls during bad economic times. If there is one positive sign for the premier, it is the fact that almost a quarter of respondents (23 per cent) were neither satisfied or dissatisfied with the government’s performance. That could also mean they are not convinced anybody else could do a better job.

The survey of voter intentions conducted by the same company would seem to bear that out. The Green party was the choice of 34 per cent of voters — a drop of six per cent from the June poll. The Liberals dropped a single percentage point to sit at 18 per cent with the governing Progressive Conservatives jumping two points to sit at 15 per cent. The poll held some good news for the New Democratic Party as they showed the largest gain, going from two to seven per cent.

Just like the poll measuring the level of government satisfaction, the number of undecided remains high at 26 per cent and that is unchanged from the previous poll. This is the group that will decide the next outcome of the next election.

When it comes to who would make the best premier, 37 per cent gave the nod to Matt MacFarlane of the Greens. However, that is a major drop from the 51 per cent level the Borden-Kinkora MLA enjoyed in June. Lantz was up three points to sit at 14 per cent.

The survey was conducted before former Summerside mayor Dan Kutcher became the designated Liberal leader. His impact won’t be measured until the November quarterly poll — assuming there is not an election called first. Interim leader Hal Perry was the choice of eight per cent of respondents while NDP Leader Thomas Burleigh was named by five per cent of respondents. Once again, there was a high level of uncertainty with 18 per cent saying they were sure and another 18 per cent choosing the “none of the above” option.

Unlike the 2023 vote when the Dennis King government had an easy path to re-election, this time the election could produce a photo finish. It is now up to the premier when he fires the starting gun.

Andy Walker is a P.E.I.-based political commentator and freelance writer. He can be reached by email at andyangelawalker@gmail.com.